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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 27th, 2023

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  • I think that free speech laws are what stopped us from being proactive against these intolerant fascist views.

    They turn tolerance from a social contract into a “paradox” where we have to tolerate the intolerant until they take over.

    If we didn’t have such strict free speech laws, we could have deplatformed and jailed these people back when they were at the “protest with confederate and Nazi flags” stage and not had to deal with the neo-fascist government stage.

    To put it another way punching Nazis should be legal. A Nazi is a direct existential threat to Jewish people and other minorities. Parading with Nazi paraphernalia in public is violence towards others and punching Nazis is valid self defense. American free speech and self defense laws were written to exclude “inducement” of violence, but that’s been whittled away by the supreme Court, including a ruling that walking around with Nazi flags in a Jewish neighborhood wasn’t bad enough to permit the residents to retaliate in any way because of “free speech”.






  • LMFAO “the main reason is guns, but I don’t like that so let’s mix the data into other categories to obfuscate the issue so no one else can use it to support gun reform”

    Yeah, other countries have access to guns, but they also have a lot more licensing requirements and restrictions. That keeps guns away from idiots, unsafe people, and criminals. That’s the difference, gun reform.

    You 2A people have zero reading comprehension because I’ve never seen one of you in a well regulated militia.



  • Ironically, in statistics, and in the application of statistics to science, a significant result is one that is measurably different from zero. So when a scientist says “no significant effect” they don’t mean “there is an effect, but not a significant one” they mean “there is no measurable effect”.

    That STILL doesn’t mean it’s zero, like you said. But it does mean that if the effect was actually zero the data would still be the same. That’s because rabies data is famously unreliable. Often by the time they’re diagnosed, victims are nonverbal. We can get an idea of the species where the stain originated from, but that doesn’t mean that’s the animal that bit the person. If a bat bit a cat who bit a human the test would turn up bat. So was it a undetected bat bite, or a bat infection in a non-bat carrier? We’ll never know because the patient can’t explain anymore. Is it zero, is it a small amount? We don’t know. But what we do know is that if there is a connection between undetected bat bites and rabies in humans, that connection is weak enough to be undetectable using the data we have.





  • COVID used to be about 2% fatal, which is huge. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_cruise_ships

    Now, as predicted by scientists right at the start, it’s at least 10x less fatal, about on par with a particularly serious strain of flu.

    Waiting it out saved A LOT of deaths. Countries with better lockdowns have significantly fewer deaths per capita. Some countries like New Zealand who responded both very quickly AND very seriously were able to benefit from far fewer restrictions as well

    The vaccines also reduced severity, and transmissibility of the virus, both at the time as well as now, and they’re still medically recommended for at risk groups.

    There was an emergency, the steps we took helped everyone. No one gained anything significant politically except anti-vax fascists who are now running the country.

    We on the other hand benefited from fewer fatalities, the first actual progress towards sustainable living with work from home for people who can. We finally made progress on climate goals. We showed the power of collective action through government benefits and healthcare for all when it came to vaccines at least in the US.

    It’s too bad we’re working away from those improvements so quickly.


  • You’re clearly putting a lot of effort into your responses and are being respectful. I don’t think I’ve given you the same respect so far so I’ll try my best.

    I agree with the nuances you brought up. I understand you feel it’s better to intervene and be safe than sorry. I see the appeal of that.

    I take the opposite stance. I know that the welfare of the child is closely tied to the stress and trauma they endure. In most families that at least nominally love their children that’s related to the stress of the parents. Stressed out parents are bad parents (all else being equal). Taking a child from their parents is a big stressor, that alone will make the child’s life worse.

    To me, that’s enough motivation to say that on average the damage you cause through intervention has to be less than the life improvement you gain from intervention.

    That’s a hard balance to strike. It can be appealing to say that damage to 100 families is worth it to save one child from irreparable harm.

    My personal ethics say that you’re only responsible for your actions. If you don’t act and something bad happens then that’s on the people who did the bad things. On the other hand, if you do act then it’s important to validate that your actions match your intentions to improve the world, using the data you have access to, as best as you can.

    I know other people have a value system that compels them to act because not acting can be as much a choice as acting. This type of value system would definitely lead you to intervening more often. I have a hard time internalizing these types of value systems because they’re very problematic at large scale and at edge cases.

    I can live in a world with interventionists. But it doesn’t mean I don’t feelthe damage unnecessary interventions cause such as the one in this article.


  • The article sites 4 studies not one.

    Even at that, lower earnings and higher delinquency rates are exactly the kinds of data point that shows unnecessary intervention, like taking a child from the mother over poppy seeds, which maybe you’ll remember is what we were disagreeing about, is bad for children.

    It’s clear that the “take the kids from the parents and investigate later” attitude you’re recommending causes more problems than it solves, even though it’s “well meaning” at first glance.

    Eating food isn’t a reason to have your kids taken away from any parent, even one who was at risk of drug abuse. This is a known problem with the tests and they should have confirmed it BEFORE acting, not taken the baby and investigated later.