I don’t know if I’m going crazy but looking at the current situation in the world … please tell me that I’m overexagurating
There are bad things happening in the world, conflicts, ecological disasters, economic upheavels, and political upheavals. It’s easy to look at these bad things and assume things are much worse than they are. Nobody wants there to be a world war 3.
I don’t think so.
Primarily because there’s not economic benefit in it for the ruling class.
Also, we’ve made the experience of the war in the middle east around 2000 where the USA couldn’t even occupy a farmer’s state for more than a couple years.
I don’t think anybody realistically thinks they can take over another (big) country in this time.
Primarily because there’s not economic benefit in it for the ruling class.
Our history of perpetual war seems to disprove this
Famously the same was said about WWI re the economic benefit.
No. It’s bad for the economy.
The number one thing I’ve learned through the last several decades is that if it’s bad for the economy, no one will do it. Greed is the number one driver of everything right now. Maybe that will change, but I doubt it. Look at all the positive progress we try to make, it’s stopped the second anyone rich would lose any money.
Russia fucked their own economy.
Not the first time, nor the last…
It was imperial core neocolonialists who fucked them the first time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_therapy_(economics)#Post-Soviet_states
Meanwhile, in the real world. Russian economy is booming, and the World Bank just reclassified Russia as a high income country https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/world-bank-country-classifications-by-income-level-for-2024-2025
The IMF forecasts that Russian economy is set to grow faster than all the western economies https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-advanced-economies-in-2024-imf.html
You could not be more wrong
It’s bad for certain parts of the economy and it is dangerous for current rulers.
Economy is cyclical, always either heading into a recession or coming out of a recession. A capitalist society requires constant money flow for expansion which is why interest rates are lowered during recessive times to stimulate expenditure and raised during peak to control expansion. World wars put spending into overdrive.
To the wealthy, volatility is opportunity. Yeah, the market will go down for a while, and later it’ll go back up. Billionaires will cash in both ways.
please tell me that I’m overexagurating
You’re overexaggerating.
this person needs to tell us what about the “current situation” they think is so bad before we can assess how mentally diverse they are
Spelling it different is like crossing your fingers behind your back. WW3 confirmed.
Mach mal nicht so’n Fass auf.
Einfach locker durch die Hose atmen.
Man kann jetzt noch schneller ekk’n
I’ve been expecting WW3 since 1983.
Only Wiseman in the thread.
No.
The situation today is nowhere near as bad as the Cold War.
Think of it this way. All of the 0.01%ers in china, USA and Russia share the same tastes and values. Think any of them are really hot to blow up their nice places on the Rivera?
You never really know, it’s plausible. But I doubt it. It doesn’t seem any more likely now than it did in 2016.
Ceasefire in Gaza for a minimum of 6 weeks (if I understood the news correctly) is huge. That conflict might be close to over if we’re lucky.
No.
Russia (the current primary aggressor) is on the brink of a banking system collapse. It doesn’t have the money to wage war on a bigger scale than it already is.
China is far more interested in trade than hostilities.
The middle east has been a tinder box for over a hundred years. I don’t see it dragging outsiders into it and hopefully we have a respite coming.
Central Asia has tension between India and Pakistan, but that’s nothing new. India could piss off China or the reverse, and if that kicked off the loss of life could be on a scale that would be unprecedented but still I think it wouldn’t drag the west in.
It feels like youre avoiding mentioning the most warmonger country in history 😅
Russia (the current primary aggressor)
Lol, Americans are fish who don’t know they live in water.
The US has joined the party
Sorry if i misinterpreted your comment but saying that the middle east has been a tinder box for century feel like it alluding that other regions like Europe has less conflicts and is less prone to violence
The European states closest to go to war is maybe Turkey and Greece, but that’s highly improbable
Europe has certainly had its violent ages. Since WW2 its built good relationships between the countries. I do not forsee any conflict except for Russia.
you sweet summer child
I would say world war is still years away, but if SK in your name means slovakia then comfort yourself that you might find yourself in the early BRICS block vs US empire wars, so hopefully it’ll be over without too much war in your country soon.
No one in Europe would be safe in a nuclear war.
I highly doubt that WWIII will happen (within the next few years), however I forsee the next several years to not be peacful. There will be several (regional/civil) despites that will most likley occur and the chances of any of them escalating is highly unlikley. Here are the conflicts I forsee:
- Continued Syrian Civil War: wont be pretty but escalation is unlikely
- Palestinian occupation: Will absolutely continue to be horrific but none of the neighboring Arab counties care enough to escalate (or risk US aid)
- Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
- India/China border dispute: They’ll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
- US/Canada/Mexico/Greenland conflict: Who knows tbh, most likley Trump is running off his mouth as always
- China/Taiwan: I severly doubt it, in addition the US is moving microchip manufacturing to the US so strategic value may loosen
Worst case scenario here is a full blown war between the EU and Russia, the US likley wont get involved (Trump doesnt care about Europe) and neither will China (both counties might send aid respectively). It would probrally end with Russia surrendering followed by them loosing no land and maybe a regime change plus some political reforms.
Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
This is one may cool down. Definitely would not have under Harris. This is the big ww3 fear.
India/China border dispute: They’ll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
They have resolved their territorial dispute, or at least made a major agreement that mostly resolves it.
Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
How do you imagine the EU will do that exactly? The EU has no military industrial capacity to speak of, it doesn’t have access to cheap energy, and it’s becoming politically unstable. A far more likely scenario here is that the EU starts breaking up, and nationalist parties start realigning their countries towards Russia because the US will leave EU to hang.
I would imagine that if Russian agression continues than nationalist parties would loose steam
It’s a highly unlikely scenario that Russia would want to expand the war pat Ukraine, and everybody with a functioning brain understands that. What will happen is that Russia will take over all the territory in Ukraine that’s either pro Russian or neutral.
The rest will be left as a problem for the west to deal with. It’s going to be a dysfunctional rump state that’s not economically self sufficient, and where there will be massive resentment towards the west over the betrayal. If Europe allows it to fall then they will be faced with a massive refugee crisis, and if they don’t then it’s an economic black hole that they have to keep pouring money into. Either scenario will only make the already desperate economic situation in Europe even worse than it is now.
It’s going to be easy for Russia to make deals with individual countries as public unrest in Europe continues to grow. Hungary and Slovakia have already flipped to Russia, it’s likely only a matter of time before Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, and France do as well. At that point we’re looking at the end of EU, and possibly the end of NATO as well. Especially given that the US will almost certainly be pulling back now as well.
Very likely, yes.
I think that the true world war 3 will not be nations against nations, but citizens against their own nations. The stage is set for an actual paradigm shift or system annihilation. We will not support civilization if it doesn’t change, either the people destroy the pyramid or the pyramid will destroy the world.
I kinda doubt that will happen. For instance, look at Venezuela: Venezuelans are beyond fed up with Maduro’s dictatorship, but there’s nothing they can do against the government forces.
Governments will do anything they can to prevent a paradigm change.
Is it really a dictatorship?
Well they elected a president the West doesn’t like, so yes.
Absolutely, yes.
Wasn’t their current president a bus driver who rose up through politics? I had seen a mention of that in some online discussion.
Also, that the USAmerican govt has issues with Venezuela nationalising their oil and acting as a competitor to the petro-dolla system
So would they just be a adversary country, which may likely be conservative, rather than a dictatorial one?
Bus drivers can be dictators as well. It’s less about the person and more about the political situation. In Venezuelas case oppression of the opposition and unfair elections
Venezuela has been hurt by sanctions because the government was helping the people. The wealthy people of Venezuela don’t like the government because it is more socialist.
It is the poorer population that suffers the most. That’s the reason Venezuela has such a big emigration crisis, and every latinamerican country has also seen such a massive influx of poor emigrants. I experience this firsthand, almost daily.
It is not rich people that the militia constantly murders/kidnap.
It’s also difficult to get an honest picture of what is happening there as pretty much all western media has blatantly supported the more than a dozen coup attempts by the USA since 2000 alone. Folks who are able to get out are also biased in one way or another. We can empathize with their lived experience and try to help the immigrants without taking their personal experience to be the absolute truth of the experiences of all Venezuelans. But again, most of the issues that affect the citizens are directly caused by US sanctions, not Maduro or the government.
I can believe that the poor folks would suffer the most so I can’t disagree with you there, but Venezuela is a bad comparison to make, per your original comment I posted to, as far as the point you were trying to make on the orginal thread topic.
It is not my intention to be rude. I’m from Colombia, follow Venezuela’s status closely (from media on a broad range of the political spectrum) see Venezuelan emmigrants daily and have met quite a few Venezuelans, and yet Lemmy is the only place I’ve ever seen with people really convinced that Venezuelans love Maduro, and the current situation of the country is because of the sanctions.
It feels almost surreal, and reminds me when some people on Reddit were convinced they knew better than me what’s my country’s political status, all while mistakenly calling the country “Columbia”.
I’m not trying to argue that you should blindly trust my opinions here, but really, really, Venezuela is in a bad spot, nobody likes Maduro’s dictatorship, and the sanctions are not the main causes of any of that (but they do help). Either that or somehow almost everybody in whole Latin American has a very biased opinion from first-hand experiences, and only people from other continents can see that.
It’s laughable to argue that the main source of their economic issues are not the sanctions.
This tells me that you are not arguing in good faith.
You being from Columbia and having meant a few Venezuelan immigrants is anecdotal evidence.
I also am friends and know some Venezuelan immigrants.
If someone who went to Harvard and has a trust fund leaves the United States and they tell foreigners what it was like for them growing up, how similar to the average American is their experience… not very similar at all…
We can help the guy from Harvard but his lived experience is not the absolute truth of all Americans……
This is what I mean.
Likewise, if someone was born an orphan in a bankrupt church, their lived experience is not all Americans lived experience…
You missed the entire point of the comment by incorrectly calling my country “Columbia”. I don’t even know what to say.
Let’s not waste any of our time and go ask in any Venezuelan forum about the topic.
Nice dodging of all points in the previous post!
Just a thought but in democracies people don’t tend to emigrate when the “other side” wins the election.
You must mean venezuelans living in the US. Maduro won elections in Venezuela.
Yeah, the rigged ones lol. There’s even mathematical evidence of it being rigged, with votes accounting for exact percentages with just 2 decimal places, for every single candidate.
Venezuela hasn’t publish the official acts, nor let international observers be present in the elections. There was heavy repression on elections day as well, plus some offices not letting people vote.
What revolution really takes is soldier’s that are protecting the system being unwilling to kill when the “rebels” are their family and friends.
If soldiers have love for the people and see common cause more than they fear their leaders then the leader can fall.
Westerners sure do seem to think they know the feelings of citizens of other countries better than those citizens themselves.
Paint me a picture of what you think that looks like. Here’s my painting: Everybody marches on their capitals, everyone gets gunned down with 30mm cannonfire, the Americans are gunned down holding pistols and rifles everyone else is gunned down holding pitchforks and torches.
who’s doing the gunning? we dont have that many combat robots yet, and i still have hope that communication is open enough and most people aren’t too brainwashed to realize firing on your own countrypeople is bad.
but we better do sonething before these change.
No but there will be wars.
Thankfully nukes exist = (war on a big enough scale = mutual destruction (the people in power want to keep their position))
