“It’s likely going to be just as difficult to buy next year as it is this year,” Redfin’s top economist warns, with steep prices and mortgage rates keeping young buyers on the sidelines.
With the way Trump is fucking up the economy lower rates are looking increasingly unlikely. There’s still two predicted for this year but the tariff chaos is pushing things in the wrong direction for them to safely lower rates and increasing the likelihood that rate increases will become necessary. If he forces rates down it will blow the whole thing up, the independence of the Fed is integral to maintaining faith in the US economy and Trump imposing artificially low rates will cause serious problems very quickly.
I wonder at what point Powell decides he should raise rates. Trump has already been publicly stating he wants them lowered faster and how he also wants to fire Powell but it’s not clear if he will be (legally) able to.
Last I saw there was a court case making it’s way up the courts to overturn a legal precedent regarding the executives power to oust members of independent boards so it’s technically possible he will be able to legally oust Powell and install a lackey if the supreme court decides to throw out existing precedent. I think you’re right and both global markets and the dollar will reel if that happens. The fed is supposed to be independent and that obviously is not the case if Trump can fire anyone who doesn’t do whatever he asks.
The supreme court seemed to grow a spine on the Kilmar case so maybe they’ll continue to have one when this case makes its way up.
If that happens the economy will break and buying a house will become even more difficult rather than easier. There’s no scenario where Trump seizing the Fed makes housing more affordable.
With the way Trump is fucking up the economy lower rates are looking increasingly unlikely. There’s still two predicted for this year but the tariff chaos is pushing things in the wrong direction for them to safely lower rates and increasing the likelihood that rate increases will become necessary. If he forces rates down it will blow the whole thing up, the independence of the Fed is integral to maintaining faith in the US economy and Trump imposing artificially low rates will cause serious problems very quickly.
I wonder at what point Powell decides he should raise rates. Trump has already been publicly stating he wants them lowered faster and how he also wants to fire Powell but it’s not clear if he will be (legally) able to.
Last I saw there was a court case making it’s way up the courts to overturn a legal precedent regarding the executives power to oust members of independent boards so it’s technically possible he will be able to legally oust Powell and install a lackey if the supreme court decides to throw out existing precedent. I think you’re right and both global markets and the dollar will reel if that happens. The fed is supposed to be independent and that obviously is not the case if Trump can fire anyone who doesn’t do whatever he asks.
The supreme court seemed to grow a spine on the Kilmar case so maybe they’ll continue to have one when this case makes its way up.
You’re talking about if it would make rational sense to lower them…
I’m thinking it’s more likely trump somehow seizes power of the fed
If that happens the economy will break and buying a house will become even more difficult rather than easier. There’s no scenario where Trump seizing the Fed makes housing more affordable.
It wouldn’t.
But a crash in real estate would make him want low interest rates for him to capitalize with.
Like, you’re still acting like we’re talking about if it should happen.
We’re talking about if trump will do something, and he mostly does dumb shit that’s the opposite of what he should be doing