AI Summary:
Tesla’s 2024 financial results were disappointing, with several key points highlighted:
- Automotive Revenues: Fell by 8% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, totaling $19.8 billion.
- Energy and Storage Revenues: More than doubled, growing by 113% to $3 billion in Q4 2024.
- Services: Grew by 31% in Q4 2024, contributing $2.8 billion.
- Total Revenue: Increased by 2% in Q4 2024, but income fell by 23%, with an operating margin of 6.2%.
- Net Profits: Dropped by 71% to $2.3 billion in Q4 2024.
- Annual Performance: Automotive revenues decreased by 6% to $77 billion in 2024. Energy generation and storage increased by 67% to $10 billion. Services grew by 27%, bringing in $10.5 billion.
- Gross Profits: Fell by 1%, with net profits dropping by 53% to $7.1 billion for the year.
- Free Cash Flow: Decreased by 18% to $3.6 billion.
- Regulatory Credits: $2.8 billion of profit came from selling regulatory credits, not from core business activities.
- Future Predictions: Tesla expects energy storage revenues to grow by at least 50% year-over-year and aims to grow automotive sales by more than 60% in 2025.
Despite the poor financial results, Tesla’s share price increased by 103% over the same period.
Neat.
Expensive luxury cars for rich people with over 30 thousand subsidy, and they will still lose money. Credits is the new Bitcoin.
several key points highlighted
Lists nearly a dozen items 🤣
Credits aside, these dont seem like bad numbers when compared to spend/investment. Tesla management got what they wanted.
it’s ok, the president will make some rediculous executive order like “all federal vehicles must be tesla”, then do no price haggling or something and it’ll pull him right out of that bind.
Sadly I don’t think I’m joking.
Value investing is basically dead, isn’t it? Am I crazy? How can you objectively evaluate a company’s value, notice it is undervalued, and then trade accordingly when price action does not even slightly track the company’s value?
The investors are banking on Elon looting the Govt coffers into Tesla. I can’t deny the chances based on the other crap we are seeing.
True enough. A bet on any tech stocks right now is probably safe on that basis - but I expect they really do plan to crash the stock market at some point… It would make sense if you wanted to consolidate ownership cheaply.
That but also removing green subsidies helps Tesla as it’s further ahead than other electric car rivals. Also, less safety regulations likely brings it closer to fully autonomous driving.
They’re also banking on Elon staying alive for the next 4y which is a risky bet given how he immediately antagonised the MAGA crowd on H1Bs.
The MAGA crowd hates just about everybody. The last time they did anything of note was the 1/6 insurrection, and that was with the help of Dear Leader.
Exclusive contracts at 20% mark up. Can’t wait for all police vehicles to switch over to teslas.
I’d support that: the new excuses as to why a suspect escaped would be fantastic.
“Well, I would have caught him but my car died for some reason and I couldn’t get out.”
“Well, I would have caught him but I hit a bump and half my car fell off.”
“Well, I would have caught him, but my car caught fire and killed my partner.”
“Well, I would haved caught him but it was raining so my bumper fell off and punctured my tire.”
Don’t worry, none of these would make the news.
That’s not new to Tesla. Avoid bubble stocks. Avoid penny stocks. Buy “stodgy”
I’m not into Tesla stock. I’m not just here to whine about a single stock not doing what I want, it’s that I think price action in general is too irrational. I’ve got an axe to grind here and it goes beyond which stocks to pick.
Huge ETFs and algorithmic trading makes too many tickers move all the same way. This harms price discovery. And don’t get me started on off-exchange trading; This month, off-exchange volume exceeded that of lit markets.
Value investing is basically dead, isn’t it?
You’re looking at a too short time frame. The famous tulip bubble lasted for a decade, too.
I wondered that a while ago when Tesla was worth more than many other car makers combined while producing far less vehicles than any single one of them. And I remember people telling me about projections and expectations and that it’s only a matter of time until everyone drives a Tesla basically. Sounded like mass hysteria to me back then because the rest of the world won’t just sit there quietly and let Tesla have a monopoly. People bought shares because they rose rapidly in value, causing even more people to buy shares. It’s a pyramid scheme like so many things these days and people have no problem with it apparently. They love gambling and playing lottery. Value investing is too boring for them.
There’s value investing and there’s speculation. If Tesla can make a robot that can mop the floor, even this seemingly ridiculous valuation will look like a bargain. Have to remember, Tesla is not a car company. They are an AI and green tech company. Cars are just their largest activity to date.
I am concerned about Elon though. I think he’s a visionary, I think he’s valuable, but I also think he’s spread far too thin and he’s losing it as a result. Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, xAI, Neuralink, and his political efficiency project. All of these are full-time 100hr/week jobs. Even if you assume he literally never sees his gaggle of children, hell even if you assume he never sleeps, there’s literally not enough hours in the day. And I think he is thus blind to the fact that his antics are costing him support for the bigger mission.
So when will he have time to play Path of Exile and Polyopia and oligarch?
It’s gambling
Value investing isn’t dead. There are tons of value investors, and they aren’t the ones buying Tesla.
My point is, if this is how markets react to worsening sales and an actually insane CEO how can you trust a rational bet to pay off?
Value investors don’t invest in Tesla, so you should not expect its share price to reflect fundamentals.
But they do invest in stocks like Coca Cola and American Express, so you should expect the share prices of those companies to better reflect fundamentals.
That’s just another way of saying buyer sentiment is the only thing that matters, in which case we’re back to square one.
If you’re a value investor then you believe that the actual value of a company depends on its current and future earnings and the market price will tend towards the actual value in the long run.
But naturally there are other factors that also influence the market price. In fact, the whole point of value investing is to find stocks that are “underpriced”. For various reasons, they are currently priced at a discount to their actual value. Those are the stocks you should buy, and you should expect their price to increase.
Conversely, for various reasons some stocks are “overpriced”, like Tesla. You should not buy those, because you expect their price to decrease in the long run.
A corollary is that value investors expect seemingly irrational price movements like we see with Tesla. If share prices perfectly reflected fundamentals, then it would be impossible to find a “good deal”.
Right. So anyway, the market does often appear oversensitive to buzz and under-responsive to fundamentals. What’s your take on market reforms? Are there any changes you’d like to see, regulatory or otherwise?
I don’t care if the market is under responsive to fundamentals. That just means some investors are exercising poor judgment by paying too much attention to irrelevant factors. It also gives an opportunity to investors with better judgment.
That’s ok, I’m sure a big government bailout is on the horizon for JUST the struggling, American EV auto maker, because their CEO sucked the president’s dick the best.
They have $3.6B in free cash flow. This is just a decrease from last year, which was a record, to this year, a year in which new car sales outside of China are massively down everywhere.
Also remember that Tesla owns I think just shy of 10K Bitcoins that actually allowed its numbers this quarter by $600 million. And the way Trump has his minions pulling all crypto regulations look for Tesla to exploit it to the max going forward. Maybe they’ll even buy some $TRUMP coins and announce $ELON coins for foreign entities looking to launder money destined for the White House.
Again, more reason for baby musk to cry at baby trump about how it isn’t fair and he NEEEDS American tax dollars to fight the China EV invasion.
Teslas are objectively trash. 1 out of 3 model 3s didn’t pass the mandatory inspection in Denmark 4y after purchase which results in tje cars becoming very expensive paper weights given how expensive it is to repair the modal issues. I’m amazed these data weren’t more divulged by media since they come from the Danish state.
I’m glad for them.
they don’t make electric vehicles. they make human sized battery powered over engineered poorly designed toys that were somehow street legal.
The CEO is too busy playing social media edgelord. I guess when you blow up a company to the point where it will pop, you have to go into politics to change the laws to make it more profitable.
aims to grow automotive sales by more than 60% in 2025.
I think this is being reported incorrectly in a lot of places.
They said the new vehicles they’re launching in H1 2025 will allow them to grow 60% to the 3 million capacity they have.
They did not say in 2025, but it looked like it could be interpreted as 2025 without saying it.
I think this is being reported incorrectly in a lot of places.
Elon Musk said his team expects “an epic end of year” for the company as it aims to maintain its 50% annualized growth rate.
I don’t think you are aware how crazy Musk’s promises are.
So they are making bank on storage and energy, but they are allowing Trump and the EPA to ruin it? Also he makes electric vehicles and Trump and Co are trying to bring back gas guzzlers and straight pipes. Hmmm. I think Elons mouth wasn’t sufficiently moist enough for trump.
https://fortune.com/2025/01/29/tesla-shares-rally-2025-earnings-growth/
Tesla shares rally on pledge to return to growth in 2025
Continuing the bullshit from 2022, where Musk promised a typical year would have growth of 50!!
Tesla plans to launch its autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin in June
Hows that going Elron?
“This is not some far off mythical situation,” Musk said on the company’s call with analysts. “It’s literally five months away.”
So it’s been LITERALLY running for more than a half year now? Or is it still a no show, like the 7 previous years FSD should have been here?
We can do this TODAY.
He has said that so many times, on so many things, and it’s always a lie. FSD, Convoys of trucks that are cheaper than trains! Tesla being able to park. which it still can’t do reliably. And this is the very beginning of the claim that a Tesla can drive across the country (USA) to pick you up!
Did ANYONE believe his bullshit ever, do people believe he will build a manned base on Mars eventually? A base that should have been up and running I think it was 2022!!!
How is this man not in jail?
Oh right, probably much the same way Trump is not in jail. USA is an oligarchy moving towards a fascist dictatorship!!
I believed him at first, why wouldn’t I? Self driving was starting to take shape, the demos looked good, I assumed what he was saying was legitimate.
I remember starting to question things around the time of the Tesla Semi reveal. It didn’t make sense to me that you’d use heavy, short range batteries in an industry that runs by driving as far as possible, for as cheap as possible, hauling as much as possible. There were just too many compromises and he didn’t give any details other than acceleration (who cares in trucking).
After that I started looking into him more and realized his bullshit spread through everything he touched. I honestly think most people are simply not paying attention to him, they just read headlines and since headlines never call him out and only amp up the crazy ambitious things he says, people believe he’s a genius.
That seems to be slowly changing as he opens his stupid mouth about politics, but he’s pivoting to a new audience now.
tessla plans to launch it’s autonomous ride hailing service
Autonomous driving, like he’s promised he already had every year for over a decade now.
Who does anyone believe this scammer? He is a con man, always had been, and I’m just amazed at the enormous amount of idiots believing his shit
Good.
Tesla’s share price increased by 103% over the same period.
It’s funny when people cry about crypto being a scam when the entire “economy” is a casino based on genocide tokens.
They’re both scams, but at least companies make things.
Net Profits: Dropped by 71% to $2.3 billion in Q4 2024.
Since when 2.4 billion net profit is terrible?
“Yes, we earned billions but it’s actually less than the year before!” Dude, go out and touch some grass…
It’s terrible for the stock price which has a price to earnings ratio of almost 200.
If this were a normal company with a profit margin of ~6% and a normal stock price (in line with the market average), it would be fine.
You just glossed right over the “dropped by 71%” bit…since when is that not terrible? That’s an incredible decrease in profits over the course of just 12 months.
71% drop in a single quarter is time for workers to start looking for other jobs bad. This was way before Elon’s Nazi salute so expect things to get way worse. I’d be so embarrassed if I drove a Tesla.
It’s bad because downward trends are bad, especially when the economy is growing.
Look at it this way: suppose you have a job with a decent salary. Your supervisor calls you in and says, “Well, looks like we’re going to cut your pay next year”. You ask, “Is the company in trouble? Is everyone getting a pay cut?” And they answer, “No, the company is growing. Most people are getting raises. Not you, though.”
That’s a bad sign.
It’s bad because the company is bad and they should collapse, not continue on.
Receiving $2.4 billion is nice. But not if you had to pay $1265 billion (market cap) for the privilege.
When those profits come from carbon credits which means your main activity is still wildly unsustainable over a decade after the company being founded. Tesla is a massive investor bubble and their cars are objectively trash with failure rates 3x higher than the industry’s worse. Tesla is garbage sustained by a massive collective illusion of US exceptionalism.
When you know you’re going to get a billion dollars in credits for something, you plan your business around having those billion credits.
You sell cars cheaper, you expand faster, you try new ideas you might not have tried etc.
Tesla hasn’t needed those credits for a very long time now, but if they are there, of course they’re going to take as full advantage of the situation as they can.
If the credits had stopped around when Tesla didn’t need them anymore, I’m sure they would look very different than today, but they’d still be around and profitable.
Tesla would never exist in a capitalist system. Their business model is wholly predicated on government subsidies and carbon credits. Furthermore, the hen has come home to roost and their cars, like I linked above, are just bougie expensive paper weights sold by the biggest con man in history. If I was buying electric tomorrow, I’d even look at Volkswagen before considering a Tesla. I want my cars to last more than 4y, not try to kill me, and, I don’t like to pay extra for vapoware. If anything, the fact Tesla still exists, is testament we no longer live in a capitalist system but in an oligarchy where companies selling snake oil can still have high valuation because they are close to the
N*%i Partyparty in power. Looking at Teslas’s results and seeing the carbon credit weight on their fundamentals and looking at the speed BYD is expanding, only Authoritarianism can save them from bankruptcy already in 2025. Luckily, their CEO just helped bring about the 4th reich, so they are fine, just don’t pretend it’s because it’s a solid enterprise, it’s anything but.deleted by creator
Since when 2.4 billion net profit is terrible?
Since Musk claimed in 2022 that a 50% growth per year would be normal for Tesla. And people are stupid enough to partially believe him. In January 2024 Musk promised 2024 would be a HUGE growth year, with autonomous RoboTaxi being launched in June. He claimed it’s LITERALLY only 5 months away!!!
https://fortune.com/2025/01/29/tesla-shares-rally-2025-earnings-growth/
Tesla Inc. revealed plans to begin robotaxi operations and forecast a sales recovery this year, fueling what Elon Musk predicted would be an “epic” period of growth for the electric vehicle maker.
Nothing he claimed or promised has come true. Quite the opposite.
“Terrible” is just for attention, but the bit of news that would have cratered any other company’s stock it that it’s down 71% YOY. Plus:
Regulatory Credits: $2.8 billion of profit came from selling regulatory credits, not from core business activities.
People in the current administration have said they plan to end these credits in the coming months. Without them in 2024 Tesla would have reported a $500million loss for the year.
every other car manufacturer would kill for a deficit of only 500 mill for the year
And every other car manufacturer has valuation multiplies 12x lower than Tesla’s. Musk’s worst nightmare is investors treating Tesla like a car company. That’s why he keeps pushing on “Tesla is an AI company that makes cars, not a car company.”
Oh Yeah I completely agree, apparently everyone is super touchy with everything elon and couldn’t take the joke.
You misread the sheet slightly. The total profit for the year was $7.1 billion, of which $2.8 billion was renewable energy credits. I.e. their profit would have only been $4.3 billion.
Source on the killing of credits?
Those are California ZEV credits, and other similar non USA programs.
They’re going to kill a lot of other things, but haven’t heard about that yet.
This one is paywalled, but if you hit the firefox reader mode button quick enough you can bypass BI’s content blocker.
Just on mobile now so can’t read it all, but it did get the gist across, thanks! I hadnt seen that yet.
I still think they’d have to win a lawsuit against California saying California can’t have the program?
Edit: as in I don’t think they can just scrap it like he’s scrapping other things via executive order.
