I read through the non paywalled link and I couldn’t find any info on if this analysis adjusts for inflation or not. 17 times larger (before inflation possibly) seems so ripe for cherry picked data points in the name of sensationalism, that I wanted to confirm this one idea, and I didn’t. Did anyone else find anything like that?
Ever ask why there is so much yellow journalism around this subject? Who benefits and why so much effort? Lemmy acts like it’s totally normal because they agree with it. But r/the_donald would say the same about republican media’s headlines regarding immigration.
I think your line of thinking and reasoning about this is very flawed
How so. I think there are a lot of parallels between the two because they’re the same thing. It’s the same mechanism.
Next bubble gonna be 64× ?
Good one 😂
quite an upgrade from the 32 bits
A genuine stock market collapse would be very interesting
It’s ok the stock market isn’t the economy and everyone will be fine would you like to open a few hundred wells Fargo chase CITIZENS accounts preloaded with the presidential collection of crypto including 500 newly minted “Barons” ?
The cool thing about inflation is it hides shitty stock market performance.
The greater the inflation, the more stocks and GDP go up!
The Chinese and Indians are watching what is happening and busting their guts out laughing.
AI: Actually Indians
The crash is going to be spectacular.
How will we crash if the White House controls the Fed? This is gonna be a different kind of financial catastrophe.
you can maintain make-believe “all good nothing to see here” for only so long until the reality becomes undeniable. given that cost of living crisis is already running roughshod through the economy - it’s not a good sign and it will get worse.
That’s what I’m saying, it’s probably not going to be a crash, just the cost of living crisis on steroids. My moneys still on mass hunger riots next year
Even last year I would’ve said “hold ya horses, pardner” but these days I think you’re onto something. The way big tech keeps on screwing everybody while other parts of the economy actively sink is concerning.
This is the “planned economy” also known as a dreaded “communism”(1950-1989). We all know how it works. Some unqualified persons make choices on how to use the nations resources and all the sudden food and energy stop showing up.
my country went through it - i don’t remember energy shortages but the food shortages were real. That systemic mismanagement over decades with fudged performance figures up and down piled up so high it’s a miracle things weren’t worse. Took a solid decade just to clean this mess
Many such cases!! It’s pretty well studied ant this point. We designed the world economy around food security for the last 80 years. It was a tragically flawed system and was slowly perverted, but the rapid destruction of these supply chains is certainly not going to end well for some.
As someone that has been through both of these crashes, 17 times the size of the .com bubble is really, really bad. I don’t think we can even conceive of how big a hole this is going to make.
don’t worry the military tech bubble will get it covered)
jokes aside - i’m working in consulting and lots of those AI startups are straight up money laundering operations that don’t really need neither market research nor talent pool studies - pretty much everything is for show and next to zero real longterm planning. A rude awakening is long overdue for these hotshots.
One time I had a misfortune to ask what one of these startups is going to do when their product will fail to gain traction (it was yet another grammar check sentence finishing app like Grammarly) - how are they gonna pivot and their CEO laughed at me and said “we are going to work hard to make it a success” which is like super stupid thing to say when your project is in the superoversaturated market affected by cost of living crisis with customer engagement on a consistent decrease for the last 3 years and your product costs almost the same as the market leader but is also way worse.
Ever since the 90’s, I’ve often wondered if some of these bubble companies are just the living end of the “eat the rich” philosophy. I can see no more practical a way to achieve this, than to convince investment capital to empty their wallets, funneling it straight into the pockets of dozens if not hundreds more people. It’s hardly Robin Hood, but it’s also cash that’s no longer hoarded at the top.
Plus, we also know that a worthwhile goal is to not go the distance, but simply become a tasty snack for a bigger company before you go bankrupt. This lets your flimsy business model and weak patent portfolio become someone else’s problem.
it is like that with a lot of Ukranian startups - hotshot all the way then sell off and it fucks shit up for others who actually want to turn their startups into a long-running expanding businesses.
Double check your investments and be sure none of them are reliant on AI for future operative certainty.
Haha joke’s on you, I can’t afford to invest
Facts
So, Fiat currency is going to shit the bed and be quickly replaced by the digital dollar Which will of course destabilize the world banking system.
The US will probably try to pay off its existing trillions in debts using the USD and causing massive inflation before replacing it with the digital dollar.
America clearly thinks it won’t matter, and it can be self-sufficient until it drives enough people into a digital currency, while ignoring the massive inflation caused on the USD.
I wouldn’t go as far as saying that all Fiat currency will suffer, but the USD’s status as the World’s Reserve Currency is definitely at risk and the effects of that are going to be massive, especially as all those excess dollars around the World rush back to the US causing massive inflation (in fact, the US seems to already have huge inflation judging by the price of essentials, it’s just not officially recognized).
However, for people to rush from that to Digital Currency would require people to trust Digital Currencies as a safe holder of value and effective trade token, which is almost the opposite of reality: after over a decade of scam after scam and massive volatility in that domain the overwhelmingly majority of people wouldn’t trust Digital Currencies even with the USD falling to half or even one third of its value, both because of the perception of trustworthiness of them and because such a fall, which would be massive and unheard of fall in the USD, is a common event in even the most stable of Digital Currencies, such as Bitcoin.
It seems to me that Digital Currencies are actually further away from being adopted as currencies now than they were a few years ago before all the scams and well-established perception as pretty much gambing tokens (or, in nicer terms, highly speculative investment vehicles).
People already mostly pay through mobile, cards, online, etc. The trust is already there. Digital currencies don’t have to be a cryptocurrency. A well-known institution like the federal reserve could issue a digital currency and provide assurances for stability of value as well as measures like the ability to roll back fraudulent transactions. Since it’s just a number in a database and not tied up in investments, you wouldn’t even need the FDIC since your account and the amount of money in your account will remain as long as the federal reserve is still around.
People already mostly pay through mobile, cards, online, etc in existing government backed currencies, using existing payment networks.
The hill that needs to be climbed for trust in truly digital currencies (rather that just the digital representation of existing currencies, which is already what we mainly have with fiat currencies in things like online banking and electronic payments) is far vaster than that “people are used to doing some things digitally hence would trust everything else digital” one-dimensional take on the subject you put forward - it requires trust in the currency itself as well as in the payments network itself, which are the difficult parts (just notice how hard it is to get away from VISA and Mastercard as payment networks),
Mind you, maybe a government backed digital currency would work (though if I remember it correctly Colombia’s attempt at that failed miserably) but that’s really just a variant of a fiat currency that’s fully digital and in practice fiat currencies are already mostly digital (most people’s money exists as entries on bank databases, most payments are 100% digital and do not involve physical cash in any way form or shape and in fact most money in circulation developed nations isn’t in physical form).
I mean, a government backed digital currency would indeed technically be a digital currency, though controlled by a government, same as fiat currency, hence technically it would also be a fiat currency.
Trust is why I brought up a federal reserve issued digital currency. The federal reserve already creates US dollars. This would be the same except there wouldn’t be an entity printing physical dollars and you’d need an account to work with it, like a debit or credit card.
Also aren’t digital currencies like, the opposite of useful as mediums of exchange? They cost money to transfer, take hours for a transfer to go through, and are volatile enough that that hours long window is enough for value to fluctuate that someone could be ahead or behind hundreds or thousands of dollars on the transactions before it’s even complete.
Yeah, I totally agree.
That’s part of the point I was trying to make when I said they were not seen as “an effective trade token”, but I ended up talking mostly out the lack of trust on them due to all the scams.
I’m curious about the sizes of nfts, crypto and blockchain compared to the ai bubble
This is insanity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsE0BwQ3l8U&t=1492s
More of the same. I can’t wait to check out from society and specifically the tech world.
Guys compare the size of American debts to Canada’s
The dotcom bubble produced Google and Amazon.
I guess, if you count surviving it and having less competition. What did 2008 produce? Besides a stock reset for the rich.
2008 wasn’t the collapse of the dom com bubble. That happened in 2002 or so. What happened in 2008 was the inevitable collapse of the banking and loan industry due to oversaturation of sub prime mortgages and the use of them by hedge funds as a way to cheat to industry and make shit tons of money off the backs of working class people.
The “too big to fail” banks used their bailout money to buy small and medium-sized banks that were struggling, increasing the market share of the already colossal banks that caused the disaster in the first place.
It was a completely different world having several different search engines. Felt like you were actually on a discovery path. These days Google funnels you into Amazon products listings.
Yeah the one thign ai consistrntly does well is return more targeted search results than a browser.
WAAAAY back in the day, search engines functioned like a complicated Yellow Pages with indexed results and explorable categories. They encouraged you to find unique websites and seek out new perspectives and ideas. It wasn’t sustainable due to the volume of websites people make, but it was fun.
Search engines have been hot garbage for a while. If AI can at least shake that up, it would at least provide some competition and reason for these companues to try and innovate something.
They received hundreds of billions of dollars in bailout funds. That really taught them a lesson!
Should have pulled themselves up by their bootstraps and saved for emergencies.
Maybe they ate less Avocado toast and that helped already.
Also Beanz.
They survived it because of massive investments by wealthy venture capitalists and a strong foothold in their markets. They also came out of it with an eye toward dominance of those markets. Lean and mean doesn’t even begin to describe how awful these companies are. I don’t think we are going to enjoy the surviving AI companies that emerge from this particular bubble because they will be even more capitalistic in their intent to dominate every market.
That’s exactly what they are trying to do. Become bubble proof through pure size in order to be the dominant player after the pop.
And yet, the MBAs continue to pump money into it like AI doesn’t fail to provide any value in 80% of their shoehorned implementations.
It’s wild how many good uses of this tech there are, and how it’s mostly implemented in asinine ways, instead. It’s great for brainstorming. Not so great for customer fucking service.
AI is taking customer service jobs by storm because 80% of the tasks they do are answering the same questions over and over for Grandma who can’t remember how to turn on the TeeVee.
I guess that’s true. Customer service has almost never been able to actually help me, even before.
If you get to a human who cares, they often can, but it’s even harder now that AI is in the picture.
Because it’s the only growth area. Speculators need to speculate. There’s money to be made on a bubble on the way up, and tons on the way down, as long as you time it right
Everybody thinks they’ll be able to time their exits perfectly or near so, and it will be somebody else left holding the bag - in other words they’re ridding the bubble as high as it will take them but ready to jump off when it starts to wobble.
On past experience (having gone through 2 big crashes within the respective industries), the most professional of investors (such as Investment Banks) will probably manage it, the rest not so much, especially Retail Investors.
Well my brokerage made a bunch of income based restrictions on professional investment products. No short nasdaq futures for me
That kind of thing tends to be very common in the Finance Industry in my experience because of potential conflicts of interest and inside trading if one has access to non-public information around customer trade orders.
Generally you’re limited to trading the most common market traded assets (like stocks and bonds) and some of which has to be authorized or is limited in some order way (like trade orders having to be filled in advance), and most derivatives are generally out.
That said, personally I’m just using Gold as a safe haven for my savings and waiting for what I feel is an innevitable global economic crash. Granted, I’ve been doing it since the last Crash and only in the last 2 years has it really started moving up in terms of the larger currencies (USD, EUR) rather than sideways.
Might not be a highly leveraged as a derivative would be, but as a highly conservative way of just preserving one’s wealth it has worked fine for me.
Even then some of the professionals will get nuked as well, frankly speaking it’s the cautious, experienced, and old who will handle this best those who have seen the previous ones in some way be it with their own eyes or through history who will get out.
80?
I feel like that number is way over 90, 95
Bubble scientists need to adjust for inflation.
It’s not a bubble, it’s something way worse - “the reduction of the employee cost burden”
AI exists to allow wealth to access skill without allowing skill to access wealth.
Hyper-local renaissance is the only answer. Get to your village and out of the city while you still can.
