Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Friday to 'immediately' order a ceasefire in Ukraine and begin negotiations if Kyiv started withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO.
First, don’t assume a post-peace-deal Ukraine would be allowed into NATO. There has never been any serious attempt to allow them in. Just threats for Ukraine to begin the process. It is not unlikely that NATO wouldn’t even let them in.
Joining NATO would mean nuclear holocaust. Thankfully some people are rational enough to realise that this would be a bad thing. Joining NATO in spite of pledging not to would also delegitimize NATO and Ukraine in the eyes of the international community furthering the developing multipolarity we see. There is also the question of wether or not NATO membership is even on the table for Ukraine. Before the war Zelensky was informed he had to pretend it was, while having been informed it wasn’t behind closed doors.
Sometimes even realists and historical materialists wake up on the wrong side of the bed, and aren’t in the mood to answer the same question again, especially when it’s often asked in bad faith.
Can’t join NATO with an existing territorial dispute. “Agreeing and joining NATO anyways” would be an official admission by the Ukrainian government that the territories currently held by Russia are not part of Ukraine anymore.
Because the process takes time, and NATO doesn’t admit new members in active conflict with Russia. All Russia has to do to stop the next bid is invade again.
Yeah, something of that proportion could not be kept secret even if all NATO member states were all in total agreement and unity and even with the avowed silence of high officials. It also would at least partially defeat the purpose of NATO if a state joining it were to be kept secret.
There is absolutely reason to capitulate: the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have an average age above 40 and are absolutely scraping the barrel by conscripting any poor man they find. There is no universe where Ukraine pushes back the front to recover any substantial amount of territory. They have already attempted to launch counteroffensives in better conditions, and all they’ve achieved is to slow down Russia, never actually regaining any territory. The only reason they’re even in the war still is because NATO wants to sacrifice Ukrainian lives to weaken Russia, and corrupt Ukrainian politicians are making a quick buck by privatizing they country in the meantime. This is obviously not sustainable long term; in another year or two they won’t be able to recruit more people, or they’ll run out of artillery shlels.
The average age of the ukrainian forced conscript fighter is 43. NATO countries have emptied their stockpiles and are struggling to rearm, hampering their abilities to deal with other crises (like Ansar Allah), the West is staring down the barrel of a massive recession as gas prices still climb and production falls lower and lower. Russia is still able to produce enough shells to maintain a stockpile, and manages to hold and advance its fronts when it wishes, something that cannot be said for Ukraine or NATO.
The ukrainians do not wish to fight. They are being kidnapped to the front, their passports are taken from them. Why should this war continue? Russia is still ascendant, the ukrainians do not wish to fight, and they have just now received an incredibly generous offer? If you still believe this cause is necessary, why do you not volunteer? Ukraine needs bodies.
Why don’t they just agree and join NATO anyway?
I’ll answer in two parts.
First, don’t assume a post-peace-deal Ukraine would be allowed into NATO. There has never been any serious attempt to allow them in. Just threats for Ukraine to begin the process. It is not unlikely that NATO wouldn’t even let them in.
Second, Russia could just invade again.
Joining NATO would mean nuclear holocaust. Thankfully some people are rational enough to realise that this would be a bad thing. Joining NATO in spite of pledging not to would also delegitimize NATO and Ukraine in the eyes of the international community furthering the developing multipolarity we see. There is also the question of wether or not NATO membership is even on the table for Ukraine. Before the war Zelensky was informed he had to pretend it was, while having been informed it wasn’t behind closed doors.
well that’s 2 absolute shit ass takes from “@midwest.social” in this thread, they’re not sending their best
Listen, the pollen count has been through the roof here lately, we can’t breathe well enough to get oxygen to the brain.
I made this comment more or less jokingly, but today I’m actually miserable. Jokes on me.
(This was the best emoji for pollen I could think of)
That’s about right lol
I was asking a question and received many helpful and some not so helpful answers.
Sometimes even realists and historical materialists wake up on the wrong side of the bed, and aren’t in the mood to answer the same question again, especially when it’s often asked in bad faith.
The answer is nuclear war hope that helps
Can’t join NATO with an existing territorial dispute. “Agreeing and joining NATO anyways” would be an official admission by the Ukrainian government that the territories currently held by Russia are not part of Ukraine anymore.
“Why don’t they just continue to lie and break treaties and do whatever they want instead?” - deffinitly the good guys
Presumably there are enough sane Ukrainian officials left to not want to wake up to nuclear hellfire.
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Turkey would probably informed Russia immediately, or maybe Polish minister would brag on twitter like in case of Nordstream sabotage.
Yeah, something of that proportion could not be kept secret even if all NATO member states were all in total agreement and unity and even with the avowed silence of high officials. It also would at least partially defeat the purpose of NATO if a state joining it were to be kept secret.
Because that eould be admitting defeat which loses a ton of territory and abandons a lot of Ukranian.
Russia is not anywhere close to winning the war, so there is no reason to capitulate.
This isn’t capitulation, this is cutting your losses while you have something left to hold onto.
Ukraine has been reduced to sending press gangs to kidnap old men to the front lines.
What does “winning the war” look like to you?
There is absolutely reason to capitulate: the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have an average age above 40 and are absolutely scraping the barrel by conscripting any poor man they find. There is no universe where Ukraine pushes back the front to recover any substantial amount of territory. They have already attempted to launch counteroffensives in better conditions, and all they’ve achieved is to slow down Russia, never actually regaining any territory. The only reason they’re even in the war still is because NATO wants to sacrifice Ukrainian lives to weaken Russia, and corrupt Ukrainian politicians are making a quick buck by privatizing they country in the meantime. This is obviously not sustainable long term; in another year or two they won’t be able to recruit more people, or they’ll run out of artillery shlels.
The average age of the ukrainian
forced conscriptfighter is 43. NATO countries have emptied their stockpiles and are struggling to rearm, hampering their abilities to deal with other crises (like Ansar Allah), the West is staring down the barrel of a massive recession as gas prices still climb and production falls lower and lower. Russia is still able to produce enough shells to maintain a stockpile, and manages to hold and advance its fronts when it wishes, something that cannot be said for Ukraine or NATO.The ukrainians do not wish to fight. They are being kidnapped to the front, their passports are taken from them. Why should this war continue? Russia is still ascendant, the ukrainians do not wish to fight, and they have just now received an incredibly generous offer? If you still believe this cause is necessary, why do you not volunteer? Ukraine needs bodies.
Nice try, robot