All things considered, it has only been about 3 months since Trump took office, I feel like there is absolutely no way that this was just a single craze and from here things will even out.
I feel like until 2028 (or maybe 2026?) S&P 500 is going to look like a roller coaster.
What do you think?
We’re hardly even three months in… We’ve got a loooong way to go before even the midterms.
The 90 day pause on tariffs is doing all the heavy lifting right now. We’re going back into crisis mode in a few months.
Meanwhile, the stock market isn’t the only indicator of economic health. Mass layoffs are still happening, prices aren’t falling, inflation is still at risk to blow up again, consumer spending is down, and all the major banks are predicting a recession with better than coin flip odds.
We’re absolutely not out of the woods yet.
The problem is not Trump. America would be in the same predicament no matter who was leading or what party or what ideology they had. Obama hit the nail on the head when he talked about the dangers of financializing America - making money on money instead of making product. A substantia portion of the American GDP has nothing to do with generating tangible wealth, it is a result of inflating paper wealth - the value pf stocks, the price of gold, the value of real estate, the interest payments from other people on borrowed money, interest on your savings account that is only as valuable as the bank that holds the account. None of this wealth can actually buy anything tangible, except more paper wealth. Eventually, the country begins to look like Musk - on paper, enormously wealthy, but in terms of liquid money, unable to buy very much. Musk has to use his paper asset wealth to BORROW real money on, if he wants to do anything big.
Generally, Trump is not alone. All of America is just running around stupidly cuckoo crazy because they realize there is not a single thing they can do to actually stop the decline. They are in pure panic mode, grasping at anything that comes along, and panic is always chaotically unpredictable except for the nature of the outcome… All they can do is to position themselves individually so that when the country goes ‘splat’ they have a chance of surviving.
For Canada to avoid the splat, we need to put as much distance between us and the ‘splat’ as we can, instead of being at ground zero of the impact.
So it’s like you’re saying that the gold rush AI craze, crypto, meme stocks, property bubble inflation, money printing, uber and airbnb, side hustles and crowd funded health care aren’t as good as a real growing economy?
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Absolutely, You have the concept down pat. They are like a ‘condom’ economy - they give you a sense of comfort, security, and safety while you are being screwed. Except for the ‘crowd funded health care’ - that is an American hangup.
You are correct about the lack lf practical value in the american capitalism, but that is the much bigger picture and while what is going on right now is only possible because of this system, it is happening now and in this way because of trump.
It’s like saying that if I shot someone in the head it wasn’t because of me that they died, but because of the nature of life which must conclude in death. Like, yeah, they died because everyone dies, but they died now and in this way because of me.
No, it is not happening now because of Trump. Trump s happening now because of the way America works. No matter who was in charge, the panic and outcome would be the same. America was at the breaking point, and nothing could have prevented it. Even Obama made that clear. Individually, yes you are correct about ‘If I shot’‘’'. The reality is 'EVERYONE collectively in America is doing the shooting, because ‘shooting’ has become culturally acceptable. So holding the individual accountable for herd action is just insanity. You stop the herd action at the herd level. Changing the action of an individual just does not make a difference in herd action. When Trump is deposed, Vance will be far worse than Trump could ever be. Vance is focused. Blaming Trump just makes it easier for Vance.
Isn’t that just a deterministic nihilistic world view? I mean it just sounds like you are saying that nothing could have been different and that it was allways going to be like that.
I don’t see why that would be true, Harris was very close to winning. not all broken systems have to end in an extreme collapse, it’s not impossible that things could have been fixed over time.
I just don’t think that everything is doomed to fail and that Trump is nothing but a vessel for the inevitable.
If you are in a car, and the tires are going flat, is it a deterministic, nihilistic, view that inevitably, no matter who the driver is, the car will soon have to come to a stop? The choice, of course, is how catastrophic the stop will be - a controlled stop or a calamitous stop?
The trouble with America is that, even if Harris won, the entire American system is still based on an adversarial, winner-take-all system. In that regard, as Obama found out, the system is inherently unstable and unsteerable. Every move Harris tried to make, would be opposed and every attempt made by the opposition to undermine it. Under such conditions, progress is impossible. But even a controlled landing is impossible. No matter how much time America had, the fundamental problem was unfixable without a complete reset. The American governance system is basically unworkable and dysfunctional. The Civil War proved it, and the Civil War never really did end.
America has to split up in order for the parts to function properly again. The two sides are basically incompatible, and divorce is the only viable solution, apart from continuing the fighting, hating, and constant battling. Prolonging the situation will only lead to both sides destroying each other.
In point of fact, when Trump is deposed by Vance, the inevitable split will accelerate. Half of America will never live under the 2025 Manifesto, and the other half will never allow it to be undone once Vance puts it in place.
I think Trump will dump and pump repeatedly until he’s stopped. Him and his billionaire bum chums will be absolutely raking it in.
Precisely. Vance will use Trump’s erratic behavior as a reason to have him impeached by the mid-terms, and then Vance will fulfill his goal of becoming President.
Alot has happened in the last 6 years that has financially changed the world. Corona virus and the breakdown of global supply chains. Biden froze Russia’s investments in US treasuries resulting in the weaponization of the global reserve currency at the start of the Ukrainian war. Further trust was eroded by Trump and his abandonment of previously agreed upon trade deals and imposing tariffs of varying degrees that are adjusted at will, per emotion. Whatever your political leanings you best get ready for some difficult times as the world loses faith and trust in American global leadership.
Almost certain that Trumspki will do something stupid soon and then more stupid shit after that. The S&P will be look like a wild roller coaster.
Wake up, people.
Taiwan makes 50% of the world’s semiconductor ‘chips’. They just announced a US$100 billion investment to build a fab plant in the US, to manufacture chips in the US. A few things about that.
No American company has anywhere close to $100 billion to invest in anything, The American corporations used their profits to buy back their stock not to invest n production. What cash they had left over, they invested in stocks and bonds, which they have to try and sell before they can use the money. American corporations are. essentially, cash liquidity poor despite their huge profits. They do not have the liquidity to build anything. Musk may be the world’s richest man on paper, but a few Chinese financiers have much greater liquidity wealth than he does, and they are actually able to BUILD things. It is the difference between financialized wealth and actual money.
South Asia has enough investment money to build more kilometers (miles, if you are American) of high speed rail every year for the last several years than the US has TOTAL, and this money is just a drop in the bucket to them. There just is not enough liquidity in American corporations to build anywhere close to what China can do. American corporations squandered their wealth in the pursuit of maximizing profit payouts to shareholders, and the shareholders just used this capital to buy the same shares at higher and higher prices Not a penny of that money went into building new plant, it just went to increasing the price of existing shares.
Essentially, America is becoming a branch plant operation of Chinese corporations with profits going back to South Asian investors, and Americans get stupidly low wages. America is rapidly becoming the low-wage country of the world. The lower the stock market goes, the cheaper it is for South Asian money to buy up control of American corporations. When GM went bankrupt, China bought the restructured shares. When Ford almost went bankrupt, China bought the non-American Ford subsidiaries to save Ford, but essentially gained complete control of Ford. All profits from Ford auto sales go back to China. Haier now owns General Electric Appliance Division, and is now making what are essentially Haier appliances in America, using cheap slave-labor-wage Americans to build them cheaper than they can in China. All the profits, however, go back to China.
The Law of Unintended Consequences. The Trump misguided policies are just accelerating the sell-off of America. Trump wants foreign corporations to build their product in America, using cheap American labor, ignoring completely that the profits all flow out of America and the foreign investors now control American production.
Like Trump said, it is a good time to get rich. Like Trump dd NOT say, it is the South Asians that are getting rich. China owns most of the American treasury bills, now China will soon own most of the American production plant.
Good, China can lead, because the West fucking sucks at it. - a westerner.
I wholeheartedly agree. The West has gotten what it deserves. America squandered everything, and is now left with nothing but scraps.
Sell America’s future to the 1%, destroy the middle class, attack voting, attack education, make health issues a financial death sentence.
Omg why don’t our citizens love us. 😯
Almost. it is 'selling America’s future to the top 20%. It would take at least 10% to actually form a viable economy. The Roman Empire and the British Aristocracy in antiquity realized that. So has Putin, North Korea., and Saudi Arabia. The system needs a critical mass to ensure survivability and continuity
Your title makes it sound like you think the S&P is going to get a lot higher. This is because you mention growth, then use a tip of the iceberg analogy, which suggests that the rest of the iceberg is more growth. If you wanted to suggest a crash, you should have used a different analogy.
“Tip of the iceberg” means there is more lying in wait under the surface that can sink your ship. Sailors give icebergs a wide berth for this reason.
The point of the saying is that there is more danger than just what’s immediately visible.
The plan is to declare martial law on the 20th.
So we’ll see if that effects the stocks.
I’m more concerned with the bond sell-off, that’s a very bad sign.
Can you explain a little further? I don’t know what you are talking about
If you have 20 minutes to spare this video really helped clear it up for me.
It might seem unrelated at first, but bonds will be discussed approx. 5 minutes in, and the preceding parts helps lay the groundwork.
I’d later come to understand this is called Modern monetary theory.
The original reply was great, I just want to make it dead simple: if bonds continue to be sold off in these numbers, it indicates investors no longer believe in a future where the US dollar is the international reserve currency. This is very bad if you’re an American.
My knowledge is very superficial, but usually government bonds are a very safe investment. It’s basically how countries can even go into debt. In times of market uncertainty, you would expect that investors who sell off stocks put their money into bonds. However, investors are also selling US bonds, which means confidence in the US is waining. The US dollar is on track to losing it’s place as the world’s reserve currency.
This is all very bad for the US, since it also means they have to increase interests in bonds so people keep buying, which leads to more taxes since the interests on the bonds is the interest the US has to pay on their debt.
Please correct me if I am wrong
Some of the greatest daily gains in the stock market are during overall crashes.
Increased volatility is generally a bad sign for an economy’s health.
This. Uncertainty destroys value. No-one can deny that Trump generates uncertainty.
The thing about the stock market, no one freaking knows. The market has taken horrible dives before and has recovered. I also don’t believe the USA is the only country that should be worried if something does go down. The fact that some experts are saying things could be different may be worrying, but ultimately no one knows. All we can do is try our best to prepare for the worst. I wouldn’t be surprised if the protests continue to grow over the summer months in the USA.
Wait for some stupidity to reverse it again. Markets like predictability. This president is anything but.
I bet money on it reversing again (SPY). I intend to do so after this particular instance too.
S&P 500 is still up 5% over the last 12 months. Up 95% over the last 5 years. Any action on a shorter timeline than that is emotionally driven and should be largely ignored. Unless you’re day trading of course. You’re not, right?
That said, ya. We’re probably heading into a rough time.
We’re looking at negative GDP growth according to folks smarter than I am. 2 quarters of that and it’s probably a recession.
Additionally it looks like foreign investors are leaving the US Treasury market kicking up yields and foreign governments are getting uneasy about purchasing US made weapons or relying on US security guarantees which, again, reduces GDP both directly and indirectly.
2028 can’t come fast enough.
Using the stock market growth of the last 2 decades of global, neoliberal economic politics to council people to “think long term” about their investments at the start of isolationist, fascist economics policy is maybe not the best idea.
“Look at the past” only works when the past is still relevant. They are ripping up every norm and institution that made those past gains possible.
Yea but if you look at where S&P is today vs January 19th, it’s a much better representation.
Optimistic of you to assume any of this will end in 2028. Trump and his fascist goons are already priming the electorate to accept a 3rd term. He’s not going away until he’s dead.
If we wait til 2028 we’ve all failed. He has already stated he’s finding a way for a 3rd term and is currently shredding the constitution. If we do not oust the man and his entire heritage foundation crony cuck ball lickers there won’t be any voting for you to do in 2027. Their goal is to take complete control and remain in power forever. It’s clearly stated in project 2025.
Yeah I know 2028 is gonna be lit
Climbing? Wait the market opening react to the new semiconductor tariff bomb released 10 hours ago
Or walking back the laptop/phone exclusions, or China halting rare earth shipments, or…
