I want to hear you reasons, why do you think that.

  • HubertManne@moist.catsweat.com
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    4 months ago

    There are certainly some folks, who are leaders of various countries, who seem to very much want it. Heck you would think china would not given their economic position but they still do the push push on the south of china sea, taiwan, india, tibet… Add in putin, kim and trump and a match and we got it.

  • 1984@lemmy.today
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    4 months ago

    This war is about control, not by weapons but by controlling minds. It’s fairly obvious. Social media forms opinions. It’s also full of bubbles where people get reinforcement for their existing beliefs. What people believe doesn’t matter so much, just that their beliefs are shaped by social media.

    Social media platforms are controlled by big tech algorithms, so they in turn control what information should surface. On computers and phones, you have survellience apps running (called AI) that collects information about each users private life. This is all combined with other info to build an accurate profile of everyone having a device using social media or the web.

    The end goal is to watch everyone, keep them in line. In the west I think it’s mostly used to sell ads, but in other countries like China and Russia, I think it’s more sinister.

    Either way, the end goal is control of people. Before, it was control of land and borders.

    • BrainInABox@lemmy.ml
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      4 months ago

      In the west I think it’s mostly used to sell ads, but in other countries like China and Russia, I think it’s more sinister.

      Which social media algorithm caused you to form this opinion?

    • Michael@lemmy.ml
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      4 months ago

      Yes, surely with programs like PRISM and the NSA, and corporations collecting information about literally every aspect of our lives with every device we purchase…they are just trying to sell us ads.

      Our ruling power structure is paranoid, our government is rogue and largely does not serve US citizens (only the ruling elite), they maintain control by invoking fear, division, outrage, and stress in the population and they count on our learned helplessness and slave mentality. They want us to be depressed, they want us to be chronically ill and tired, they want us to be poor and struggling, and most importantly they want us to think we’re the “good guys” fighting the “bad guys”.

  • hemko@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    4 months ago

    On average it takes ~21 years between world wars, so it’s about the time since we’re 60 years late on schedule

  • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.club
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    4 months ago

    I’m going to look at it more in terms of how long a European peace lasted.

    The Napoleonic wars ended with the Concert of Europe, a peace that was able to last until World War I and depended on a balance of power that lasted for almost a century.

    An equivalent system was set up after World War II with a peace anchored by the Allied Powers, decolonization, and the US-Soviet rivalry. That system has lasted for about 80 years and is showing significant strain.

    I don’t know how long this system will last, but it doesn’t seem like it will last for much longer. Trump’s election seems to be hastening that end.

    • Majestic@lemmy.ml
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      4 months ago

      An equivalent system was set up after World War II with a peace anchored by the Allied Powers, decolonization, and the US-Soviet rivalry. That system has lasted for about 80 years and is showing significant strain.

      What? No it hasn’t. The cold war ended by 1992 at the latest. At that point the US achieved total, unipolar hegemony over the world and began exercising it. Clinton’s “interventions” in Kosovo, Africa, etc. The Bush era Neo-Cons, those were all results of a new era of unchallenged American power and hegemony. That marked a new era.

      Right now the world, led by China and Russia as well as other members of BRICS are trying to buck that total dominance and hegemony of the US and set up a multi-polar world but the US is not letting go, it is not ceding power, it has replaced international law as set out in agreement with the victorious powers of WW2 with “rules based order” which means its way or the high-way, the rule of their might and their wants and nothing else matters. Trump is flexing that built up power, the fact they control SWIFT, the fact the dollar is world reserve currency, their incredible ability to do sanctions to anyone anywhere and put a big hurt on them for defying US interests and wants. He’s unleashing the full might, threatening sanctions, tariffs, straight up invasion to take Greenland or the Panama Canal, etc. All to do what? To maintain US primacy, to prevent the emergence of a multi-polar world where the US doesn’t dominate everyone else and set the terms and rules for the entire world.

      So there are movements to try and strive towards a Westphalian (multi-polar) order led by China, Russia, and followed in those steps by other BRICS nations but they are cautious, they don’t want to anger the US and even China still backs down if the threats of sanctions gets too big. So right now we’re in a struggle to determine what kind of world we have either a continuation, a hardening of US empire and unipolar hegemony, unchallenged dominance of the world and its peoples to their dictates and benefits or else a multi-polar world structured around Westphalian principles of sovereignty of individual nations and cooperation and peace born out of multiple strong powers checking each other’s ambitions against other weaker nations.

      The US ended an era of struggle and some independence for nations on its own after it won the cold war, it chose to build up its power, to break international law (Yugoslavia, Iraq, war on terror, sanctions regimes galore, etc), to replace it with “rules based order” which no one can solidly define the rules of because they’re ever shifted based on the wants and needs of the US.

      • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.club
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        4 months ago

        It has still been a relatively peaceful time in human history post fall of the Soviet Union even when you include Iraqi and Afghani deaths as a proportion to the world’s population. Wars still happened in that relative time of peace, but those conflicts were relatively contained to not create a new great power war.

        Great powers haven’t entered in open conflict on the scale of World War II, which was chosen as a bench mark.

        • Grapho@lemmy.ml
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          4 months ago

          It has if you think only conflicts in western land matter. What’s more, the US might launder its military operations within proxy organizations and banking institutions but it absolutely has wars going on even outside Iraq and Afghanistan. Whistleblowers have confirmed the CIA as being behind every major terrorist attack in Chechnya and Xinjiang, and financing paramilitaries all over the world, as well as dealing with narcos and creating huge waves of drug violence in México, Ecuador and Colombia just to name a few.

          Millions are dead as a direct result of US intervention in Iraq alone.

            • Grapho@lemmy.ml
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              4 months ago

              Sure, but this isn’t an "inordinately peaceful "time just because it isn’t as deadly as the single biggest war in all of history.

              • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.club
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                4 months ago

                I didn’t just provide one example, though. There are cycles of war and peace in Europe that got mapped out to the globe as European nations became the dominant powers. There are eras of wars where various great and lesser powers participate in more destructive wars because the international order has broken down and isn’t there to restrain belligerents. There are also times when costly wars don’t end with a lasting “peace”, but an armistice before fighting resumes.

                We seem to be at a point where the post World War II international order is breaking down. When that happens historically, there is usually a big war and destruction on the order of magnitude of World Wars I and II.

  • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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    4 months ago

    Perhaps. Depends, ultimately, on if the US Empire goes down with a bang, or a whimper. Its grip on the world is spilling through its fingers like sand, so either it will watch it fall out helplessly, or will attempt to strike and retake what it’s losing.

    • FourPacketsOfPeanuts@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      “and now class I would like to draw your attention to a footnote that existed between the ancient empires of Britain and the Glorious Peoples Empire of China… for a time there was a thing called ‘America’…”

      • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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        4 months ago

        I don’t think the PRC will be taking on the mantle of “Empire.” Hegemon, sure, but their strategy thus far has been starkly different from the British and US Empires with respect to the Global South. The current US Empire dominates the Global South largely through massive Financial Capital and control of the World Reserve Currency, and is largely de-industrialized, while the PRC focuses more on selling to other countries as a heavily industrialized country. For example, in the US, “Made in USA” is a rarity, and usually just assembled in the USA, while in China “Made in China” goods are by far the norm.

        • theneverfox@pawb.social
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          4 months ago

          Belt and roads is China’s attempt to do exactly what we’ve been doing with the global south, invest for influence and put them on a debt treadmill. Build infrastructure, pressure them to take on more debt with new projects, say it’s time for austerity, open up more foreign investments, use pressure to buy up raw resources, etc

          It’s worth mentioning Coca-Cola… You can get American products everywhere, opening them up as a new market isn’t a different strategy, it’s part of the process

          • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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            4 months ago

            Is there actual evidence of these debt traps, or is that just an assumed motivation? Again, China’s financial Capital is largely held by the State, not private entities. Big difference in motivation compared to, say, US finance Capital, which is largely Private. Furthermore, Coke largely produces in the Global South, China produces in its own country.

            • theneverfox@pawb.social
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              4 months ago

              Yes, the World Bank and the IMF. I’ve even seen it personally, which is what led me to dig down the rabbit hole - I got interviewed by a world Bank employee to explain why I was installing a system for an airport, and they kept trying to guide me to explain why it was helpful…I couldn’t, because it was only useful if the Internet is down, and if that happens it’s probably not useful because the system had to be taken down if there’s bad weather, and the airport regularly flooded during storms anyways

              They were constant protests and news coverage of projects being pushed on them, and it was an open secret for the airport workers. It was for things they didn’t need or want, even though they had plenty of infrastructure in disrepair already

              Argentina is the classic example, they resisted and had their currency destroyed, which makes international trade hard. Other countries go so deep in debt they have IMF officials installed in their government to implement austerity measures, some even are forced to hand over their currency printing powers

              Sometimes countries get into our good graces, like Peru, and they are let off the treadmill in exchange for beneficial trade deals. That’s after having their resource rights sold off and letting in foreign investments to extract wealth moving forward, but mostly they’re kept in perpetual debt as leverage

              It’s a wild and very deep rabbit hole. The information isn’t hidden, it’s just spun in a positive light

        • jacksilver@lemmy.world
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          4 months ago

          UK went through industrialization leading to its empire, and the US was the industrial power during its ascent. Same thing with Japan before WWII.

          Many imoeralistic powers seem to go through big industrial growth before expansion.

          • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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            4 months ago

            Sure, but that evidently doesn’t seem to be the course the PRC is taking. Rather, as Marxist-Leninists, they appear to be more interested in building up the Global South through favorable trade deals as an investment in future customers for their exports. This is fundamentally a different strategy from focusing on exporting financial and industrial Capital to the Global South. Further, China is too populous to offload their productive forces to the Global South, even if we doubt them as dedicated Communists it doesn’t appear to be an economically viable strategy to adopt an Imperialist stance to begin with.

            • theneverfox@pawb.social
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              4 months ago

              They’re not Marxist-Leninists at all though… They’re just a highly regulated form of capitalism.

              The government doesn’t own Tencent, they just keep a strong grip on them. They have their own billionaires, the factories have owners, companies bid to fulfill government contracts, you apply for a job and get paid what they offer. It’s just capitalism

              Their government does a lot more than in the US and has a lot more influence, and they do influence the market more… But that’s just regulation and public services

              They basically do what we did to tik tok. The US government can revoke a corporate charter for any or no reason, China just actually uses this authority actively

              • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                4 months ago

                They claim to be Marxist-Leninists, explain their actions, and have an economy driven by Marxist-Leninist analysis. They have Markets, yes, but markets aren’t the same thing as Capitalism itself. Rather, they have a Socialist Market Economy, which is driven by public ownership and planning of heavy industry, energy, finance, infrastructure in general, etc and have partial private ownership over light industry.

                By what reasons do you say they aren’t what they say they are? What do you think their economy would look like if they were “true Marxist-Leninists” in your eyes? When does an economy become “Capitalist” and when does it become “Socialist” in your eyes?

  • ReadMoreBooks@lemmy.zip
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    4 months ago

    No, we are not headed for WW3.

    The military-industrial complex must be fed, our weapons sold or used. But, a large magnitude hot war has far more social and economic risk and not enough return on investment relative the alternative of multiple proxy wars. We’ve currently proxy wars in Israel and Ukraine. Economic growth is optimized by beginning a proxy war with China.

    If Trump was smart then he might internally convince others in his administration to diplomatically and operationally over-commit. Then we could have WW3. But, he’s a puppet ruling by fear. We’ve been fighting our proxy wars since Reagan. Trump isn’t capable of overcoming capitalism’s mandate for optimized growth.

    • TheYang@lemmy.ml
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      4 months ago

      Economic growth is optimized by beginning a proxy war with China.

      But where? Taiwan seems the obvious candidate. Not sure if that would really lead to (quaterly) economic growth though.

      • ReadMoreBooks@lemmy.zip
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        4 months ago

        Not sure if that would really lead to (quaterly) economic growth though.

        Regarding war and money, the question often isn’t who’s positioned to gain the most, instead who’s positioned to lose the least. We often don’t measure self against history and reason, instead relative our competitors.

        Taiwan seems the obvious candidate.

        The US has already manufactured consent to have a proxy war with China. I assume we’ve not done it in Taiwan because we’d lose more on trade than we’d gain consuming weapons, perhaps also because China could absorb the loss of Taiwan as a trade partner better than the US.

        But where?

        To be determined. We’re ready and waiting for an opportunity to present itself.

        • scratsearcher 🔍🔮📊🎲@sopuli.xyz
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          4 months ago

          Myanmar borders China in to its north and India to its west and is currently in a civil war. This would be the perfect battlespace for a proxy war between India, US vs China.

  • Parade du Grotesque@lemmy.sdf.org
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    4 months ago

    You have to define ‘we’ and you also have to define ‘WW3’.

    Possible scenarios:

    • USA decides to get actively involved in Ukraine’s conflict. Yes, that could spell WW3. Low probability, though, since Trump does not care about Ukraine.

    • Russia decides to attack Western Europe. Probably only a regional conflict, since Trump would probably pull out of NATO. This is the scenario a lot of European nations are gaming today.

    • China attacks Taiwan and/or North Korea attacks South Korea. Probably a regional conflict, but with a high probability of escalation. Trump would drop both South Korea and Taiwan at the drop of a hat.

    • Iran attacks Israel, probably through proxy. Regional conflict. This is already going on, so low risk of escalation.

    • thepreciousboar@lemm.ee
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      4 months ago

      Not saying any of these would cause WW3, but remeber that, depending on who you ask, WW2 started:

      • when Germany and Russia invaded Poland in 1939
      • when Germany invaded Checkoslovakia in 1938
      • when Japan invaded China in 1937

      there is no single point of start for a war, just many actions of variable intensity that escalate

    • Tabitha ☢️[she/her]@hexbear.net
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      4 months ago

      It’s possible none of those would technically be WW3 by itself, perhaps the start of heavier US commitment in the first of those conflicts might be perceived as the opportunity for the others to get started. Maybe even some less obvious conflicts are merely waiting for NATO to be preoccupied (e.g. random colonies being invaded or declaring independence). The US will be forced into taking at least one L, or switching back to a war economy.

      • India vs Pakistan
      • ISIS expansion
      • Water Wars (multiple locations)
      • USA invading Mexico
      • Syrian Civil War
      • Greenland War
        • IDK if Denmark can defend Greenland, but NATO could article5/split
      • sooper_dooper_roofer [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        4 months ago

        India vs Pakistan

        not plausible, neither of them are that stupid

        Afghanistan vs. Pakistan, or Iran, is infinitely more likely. Pashtun supremacists (yea the Taliban) are actually stupid af

        You remember how the Tamil Tigers invaded Sri Lanka? Now imagine if they were doing that but to China. That’s basically what the Taliban is doing right now lol

  • lemmyseizethemeans@lemmygrad.ml
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    4 months ago

    We’ve been in it for decades it’s just more covert and low intensity. The war never stops until we overthrow capitalism I’m afraid