• FlowVoid@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    If the weather forecast said there was a 28% chance of rain tomorrow and then tomorrow it rained would you say the forecast was wrong?

    Is it possible for the forecast to be wrong?

    I think so. If you look at all the times the forecast predicts a 28% chance of rain, then it should rain on 28% of those days. If it rained, say, on half the days that the forecast gave a 28% chance of rain then the forecast would be wrong.

    With Silver, the same principle applies. Clinton should win at least 50% of the 2016 elections where she has at least a 50% chance of winning. She didn’t.

    If Silver kept the same model over multiple elections, then we could look at his probabilities in finer detail. But he doesn’t.