“It is bad economics and it is also anti-scientific,” says Jason Hickel, the author of Less Is More. “People need to understand that ‘growth’ is not the same as social progress.”
Hickel is one of the leading lights in a growing post-growth or degrowth movement. Its proponents argue that economic success cannot be measured through the crude metric of gross domestic product (GDP) and that there needs to be a managed reduction in growth in carbon-intensive countries and industries.
“Growth simply means an increase in aggregate production, as measured in market prices,” says Hickel. “So, according to GDP growth, producing £1m worth of teargas is considered exactly the same as producing £1m worth of affordable housing or healthcare.”
Hickel says that what matters in terms of social progress is not aggregate production but the production of specific goods and services that are necessary for improving people’s lives and achieving ecological goals – and a reduction in overall growth in high-emitting sectors and countries.
“Every time a politician says they want more economic growth, we need to ask: growth of what and for whose benefit?”
GDP is a great example of Goodhart’s Law. In the early 20th century it made sense to associate high GDP countries with a higher standard of living. So it seemed reasonable to prioritize GDP by discouraging savings and encouraging investment.
Now we’ve got a super high GDP, but real pay has stagnated and inequality has spiraled out of control.
So how do we inform everyone that we’ve bet the world economy on an incorrect assumption? There are a lot of people whose jobs depend on encouraging consumption, and even more whose egos depend on being right about it. People (ironically) went into debt to get degrees telling them high GDP was a good idea.