Some California House Democrats don’t want the process to replace the president on the ticket to seem like a Kamala Harris coronation.
Some California House Democrats don’t want the process to replace the president on the ticket to seem like a Kamala Harris coronation.
You are really going to need to tl;dr that. I’m not one to not read, but that’s just excessive.
I mean, it’s not a really simple result.
I guess in a nutshell:
There is limited Trump-vs-Harris state polling data available. Some has to be predicted based on other polls, and there won’t be many sources to work with.
Harris polls slightly better nationwide than Biden, but it’s not by much.
However, the model they use also predicts Biden to have a better chance of winning the Electoral College – which is what actually determines whether someone becomes President.
However, this model is built based on assumptions that may not hold for this particular unusual situation, and the authors are not sure how well those assumptions will hold up.