Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Friday to 'immediately' order a ceasefire in Ukraine and begin negotiations if Kyiv started withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO.
‘Russia is not going to X’ is a very weak argument, and over the last 10 years Russia crossed many of those Xs, regardless of you thinking it’s not going to.
Yeah, they lost black sea fleet almost completely, burned way over 30k lives to take over ruins
of Bakhmut, about the same to destroy and 'take over’s Avdiivka, got royally fucked with the assault on Vovchansk and Sumy direction, emptied their stock of towed artillery and APCs, had to borrow and from China, Iran and fucking North Korea, got sanctioned so much that rouble is now in free trade with yuan, committed genocide and ecocide, and generally lost over half a million of soldiers while aiming for week-long speed run to kill Nazi Jew zelenski. But sure this only made them stronger.
Upd: oh boi do I forget to mention that for half a year Ukraine was effectively feigning of f the entire Russian army while having close to no weapons, and delivering majority of strikes with $500/piece plastic toys
In your first paragraph, you repeat an assessment handed down to Western propaganda. Were it true, it would be very surprising to find the reality that Russia dominates the Black Sea and Ukraine and NATO (we’ll ignore Turkey, who doesn’t really care lol) has no presence there. It would also be surprising to discover that the overall Russian economy is better than pre-war and that they are having no manpower issues, and are, in fact, now advancing on Ukrainian positions.
This is understandable, as the false prospect of a Ukrainian win is important for the propaganda apparatus that actually cares far more about hurting Russia than securing a future for Ukrainians.
But all of this is somewhat moot because it bears little relation to the point I made. Or maybe I am missing something? Please be explicit.
I repeat literally assessments of Russians, and claims of Putin himself.
Domination of the black sea surely means evacuation of remains of Crimean fleet to Novorossisk, and almost complete absence of russian military in the black and Azov sea - confirmed by satellite imagery. Russia tried to turn hunger into weapon trying to block ships passing to Ukrainian ports, and failed - their unilateral withdrawal from the Istanbul agreement
I agree that russia braced their economics very well and handled the sanctioned better than most anticipated. However, the pressure mounts and the government is forced to raise taxes - surely not a sign of a blooming economy. Recent Ukrainian targeted hits at major refineries, turning Russia to import fuels - this is important both in military and economical contexts.
What I say is Russia is worse than it was at the beginning, despite territorial gains.
I repeat literally assessments of Russians, and claims of Putin himself.
Domination of the black sea surely means evacuation of remains of Crimean fleet to Novorossisk, and almost complete absence of russian military in the black and Azov sea - confirmed by satellite imagery. Russia tried to turn hunger into weapon trying to block ships passing to Ukrainian ports, and failed - their unilateral withdrawal from the Istanbul agreement
Russians are people like anyone else. You, of course, can therefore find them saying just about anything. There is little overlap between what you have said and what Putin had said though I don’t know why I should care about that.
I think you may be falling victim to propaganda when it comes to the Black Sea. Ukraine has nothing there. Nada. Zilch. The stories that are accurate describe the targeting and destruction of Russian vessels. Logically from what I just said, these are true. But Russia maintains its dominant presence, particurly in the Azov Sea.
I am interested, or maybe anticipating entertainment, by your idea that satellite imagery confirms your claim. My experience with such ideas is with teenagers pretending to know how to analyze raster imagery and lying through their teeth about it because it suits the needs of propaganda. This is what often gets filtered into the press. Please show me your Black Sea dataset with no Russian vessels, I would love to see it. I can even analyze it for the presence of vessels if you give me the data. Preferably, tiled GeoTIFF. I suspect, realistically, that you have third-hand information from propagandists, and can give me no such information. I anticipate disappointment.
I agree that russia braced their economics very well and handled the sanctioned better than most anticipated. However, the pressure mounts and the government is forced to raise taxes - surely not a sign of a blooming economy.
That is no such thing. Under a forced national industrial investment regime, a capitalist government raising taxes should be expected. There is a Russian neoliberal faction that threatens to throw a wrench into things but they have been forced into less stupid positions by circumstance.
Recent Ukrainian targeted hits at major refineries, turning Russia to import fuels - this is important both in military and economical contexts.
Important, yes. But why think it is good for Ukraine? More pressure on Russia only increases the likelihood that they adopt a typical sociopathic Western war strategy of complete destruction civilian life. That is something that has not actually happened. It’s something I was wrong about in 2022. I did not think that Russia, a regional capitalist power, would use such restrained tactics. I had to rethink my understanding of Western psychology and militarism, as it is actually qualitatively different (and morw horrible) than every other instance. I had, falsely, projected cold Western logic onto others.
What I say is Russia is worse than it was at the beginning, despite territorial gains.
All economic indicators disagree, particularly when it comes to industrial capacity.
Ukraine is far from spotless on the treaty-upholding-front. The current government was installed by the US, which is in direct breach of the Budapest Memorandum. The government has broken Minsk I and II which was a large part of the russian justification for the SMO.
‘Russia is not going to X’ is a very weak argument, and over the last 10 years Russia crossed many of those Xs, regardless of you thinking it’s not going to.
But the X here is not about a Russian foreign policy decision per se, but about their overall military standing as part of their invasion of Ukraine.
Yeah, they lost black sea fleet almost completely, burned way over 30k lives to take over ruins of Bakhmut, about the same to destroy and 'take over’s Avdiivka, got royally fucked with the assault on Vovchansk and Sumy direction, emptied their stock of towed artillery and APCs, had to borrow and from China, Iran and fucking North Korea, got sanctioned so much that rouble is now in free trade with yuan, committed genocide and ecocide, and generally lost over half a million of soldiers while aiming for week-long speed run to kill Nazi Jew zelenski. But sure this only made them stronger.
Upd: oh boi do I forget to mention that for half a year Ukraine was effectively feigning of f the entire Russian army while having close to no weapons, and delivering majority of strikes with $500/piece plastic toys
In your first paragraph, you repeat an assessment handed down to Western propaganda. Were it true, it would be very surprising to find the reality that Russia dominates the Black Sea and Ukraine and NATO (we’ll ignore Turkey, who doesn’t really care lol) has no presence there. It would also be surprising to discover that the overall Russian economy is better than pre-war and that they are having no manpower issues, and are, in fact, now advancing on Ukrainian positions.
This is understandable, as the false prospect of a Ukrainian win is important for the propaganda apparatus that actually cares far more about hurting Russia than securing a future for Ukrainians.
But all of this is somewhat moot because it bears little relation to the point I made. Or maybe I am missing something? Please be explicit.
I repeat literally assessments of Russians, and claims of Putin himself. Domination of the black sea surely means evacuation of remains of Crimean fleet to Novorossisk, and almost complete absence of russian military in the black and Azov sea - confirmed by satellite imagery. Russia tried to turn hunger into weapon trying to block ships passing to Ukrainian ports, and failed - their unilateral withdrawal from the Istanbul agreement
I agree that russia braced their economics very well and handled the sanctioned better than most anticipated. However, the pressure mounts and the government is forced to raise taxes - surely not a sign of a blooming economy. Recent Ukrainian targeted hits at major refineries, turning Russia to import fuels - this is important both in military and economical contexts.
What I say is Russia is worse than it was at the beginning, despite territorial gains.
Russians are people like anyone else. You, of course, can therefore find them saying just about anything. There is little overlap between what you have said and what Putin had said though I don’t know why I should care about that.
I think you may be falling victim to propaganda when it comes to the Black Sea. Ukraine has nothing there. Nada. Zilch. The stories that are accurate describe the targeting and destruction of Russian vessels. Logically from what I just said, these are true. But Russia maintains its dominant presence, particurly in the Azov Sea.
I am interested, or maybe anticipating entertainment, by your idea that satellite imagery confirms your claim. My experience with such ideas is with teenagers pretending to know how to analyze raster imagery and lying through their teeth about it because it suits the needs of propaganda. This is what often gets filtered into the press. Please show me your Black Sea dataset with no Russian vessels, I would love to see it. I can even analyze it for the presence of vessels if you give me the data. Preferably, tiled GeoTIFF. I suspect, realistically, that you have third-hand information from propagandists, and can give me no such information. I anticipate disappointment.
That is no such thing. Under a forced national industrial investment regime, a capitalist government raising taxes should be expected. There is a Russian neoliberal faction that threatens to throw a wrench into things but they have been forced into less stupid positions by circumstance.
Important, yes. But why think it is good for Ukraine? More pressure on Russia only increases the likelihood that they adopt a typical sociopathic Western war strategy of complete destruction civilian life. That is something that has not actually happened. It’s something I was wrong about in 2022. I did not think that Russia, a regional capitalist power, would use such restrained tactics. I had to rethink my understanding of Western psychology and militarism, as it is actually qualitatively different (and morw horrible) than every other instance. I had, falsely, projected cold Western logic onto others.
All economic indicators disagree, particularly when it comes to industrial capacity.
I’ll just leave this here for some extra sauce…Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF
Oh no, their economy is is shambles.
Ukraine is far from spotless on the treaty-upholding-front. The current government was installed by the US, which is in direct breach of the Budapest Memorandum. The government has broken Minsk I and II which was a large part of the russian justification for the SMO.