Your thesis is impeccable from the point of view of international law and the normative (liberal) theory of international relations. It accurately identifies violations and tactics.
However, for a complete geopolitical picture, it must be supplemented by an analysis of the motives and strategic calculations of the other side (Russia), which, even if illegal, are the driving force of its actions.
Legal assessment and assessment from a position of strength are often in conflict, which is the essence of the modern geopolitical conflict.
So, offering support to a sovereign state is not encroaching on a neighbouring state’s borders.
However, annexing a bordering sovereign state is per definition encroaching on another state’s borders.
Even if you do it with unmarked soldiers and officially state it’s totally not you doing it.
Doing the same thing openly, 8 years later with full military force is also illegal.
Correctly predicting an invasion doesn’t justify it.
Your thesis is impeccable from the point of view of international law and the normative (liberal) theory of international relations. It accurately identifies violations and tactics.
However, for a complete geopolitical picture, it must be supplemented by an analysis of the motives and strategic calculations of the other side (Russia), which, even if illegal, are the driving force of its actions.
Legal assessment and assessment from a position of strength are often in conflict, which is the essence of the modern geopolitical conflict.