NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
No, this is completely unheard of in forecasting, the global sea surface temperatures since march 2023 are totally unheard of.
This year, 2024, will be the year a good chunk of the world comes to terms with how brutally climate change is already here. If this swing of sea surface temperature is indicative of a new paradigm and not a temporary anomaly the scale in terms of raw energy of this change will undoubtedly lead to climate scientists and geologists in retrospect placing the true beginning of the Anthropocene proper in march 2023.
Sorry not trying to be difficult, I just want to emphasize climate scientists dont know why sea surfaces are so incredibly high right now, it is very possible some hidden breaking point in the convection of the heat transfer going on in the worlds oceans has switched to a less efficient heat sink system and are now directly heating heating up more rather than just moving the heat. Climate scientists don’t know. Sure taking sulphur out of shipping fuels definitely had someeee impact, but the energy imbalance right now is titanic and I don’t think shipping fuel sulfurs account for it all.