The belief that bad things come in threes is an old superstition with scant basis in fact. Still, in these disordered times, it’s natural to wonder whether war in Europe and the Middle East will be followed by war in Asia. Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, firing off insults and missiles, recently demonstrated how real that prospect is. Emboldened by its alliance with Russia, North Korea’s unpredictable rogue regime threatens almost everyone.

Yet it is China’s accelerating confrontation with US-backed Taiwan that forms the most alarming panel in this gloomy Asian triptych. China’s president, Xi Jinping, has reportedly told his generals to be ready by 2027 to conquer the self-governing island, which he regards as stolen sovereign territory. US officials warned last week that China already has sufficient capability to invade now, with amphibious landing craft, D-day-style floating docks, paratroopers and expanded air combat and missile fo

A range of other factors may be pushing Xi towards a fateful decision, notably Donald Trump’s strange mix of anti-China aggression and personal weakness. The US president could hike his punitive tariffs on China’s exports at any moment, threatening an estimated 9m manufacturing jobs. His hostility towards the US’s biggest rival is evident, seen again last week in discriminatory curbs on technology transfers and Chinese student visas.

These crude attempts to damage a Chinese economy struggling with sluggish post-Covid growth and high unemployment are akin to holding a gun to Xi’s head. Does Trump realise how deeply provocative this is? Chinese Communist party control ultimately depends not on elections but on economic success and shared prosperity. Deliberately or not, Trump is assaulting the foundations of the CCP’s power and authority.