When flipping a coin once, the probability of getting heads once is 50% (1/2). When flipping a coin twice, the probability of getting heads twice is 25% (1/2 x 1/2). When flipping a coin 20 times, the probability of getting heads 20 times is 0.000001% (1/2 x 1/2 x … x 1/2). And so forth…
Concretely, even if we set an arbitrarily high probability of a single illuminati-deep-state-qanon-pizza fuck up being avoided or adequately papered over (i.e. if we assume extremely competent conspirators) we still can’t avoid conditional probability, because doing so repeatedly over time becomes increasingly (exponentially) improbable. The grander the conspiracy, the fewer “coin flips” it takes to reach infinitesimal probability of maintaining the secret, hence the expression “too many minions spoil the plot.”
Can you explain?
When flipping a coin once, the probability of getting heads once is 50% (1/2). When flipping a coin twice, the probability of getting heads twice is 25% (1/2 x 1/2). When flipping a coin 20 times, the probability of getting heads 20 times is 0.000001% (1/2 x 1/2 x … x 1/2). And so forth…
Concretely, even if we set an arbitrarily high probability of a single illuminati-deep-state-qanon-pizza fuck up being avoided or adequately papered over (i.e. if we assume extremely competent conspirators) we still can’t avoid conditional probability, because doing so repeatedly over time becomes increasingly (exponentially) improbable. The grander the conspiracy, the fewer “coin flips” it takes to reach infinitesimal probability of maintaining the secret, hence the expression “too many minions spoil the plot.”