Probably true. https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/ was written before most people cared much about this but certainly applies very strongly to it. I am fortunately not directly affected by it either way (I am neither trans nor a woman nor have any desire to pretend to be trans in order to get access to women’s spaces) so it doesn’t get my emotions up much to read any side’s arguments; I can see why that may be different for others.