I’ve been reading up on the tariffs that were imposed during the Trump administration and I keep seeing mixed reviews about their effectiveness. On one hand, they seemed to protect certain domestic industries by making imported goods more expensive; on the other hand, there’s a lot of talk about higher prices for consumers and retaliatory measures from trading partners.

The thing is, these tariffs aren’t exactly popular among everyone. If we were to look back 1 year out, 2 years out, and even a few more years down the line, how will we actually know if this was a good move?

Surely there are some metrics or outcomes that can help us evaluate their success or failure. I guess it’s not as simple as checking stock market performance alone, although that’s probably part of it, right?

Is it primarily about looking at changes in trade balances with countries like China, or do we need to consider the broader economic impacts, such as job growth within certain industries? And how much weight should be given to the political ramifications, like strengthened relationships (or tensions) with trading partners?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on what metrics or indicators would help determine whether these tariffs were indeed a beneficial strategy. Thanks in advance for any insights!

  • xavier666@lemm.ee
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    2 days ago

    It takes 7+ years to bring a new factory online. more to get all the kinks worked out and at full production

    Not to take away from your point but they also have to

    • make sure product is at par with the previous alternative in terms of quality
    • make sure your supply chain is willing to shift to your new product
    • have a healthy supply of workers OR
    • have good automation in their production line (automation supply should also be sourced from within the country)

    Once you have created this factory (which needs to be subsidized by the government in order to compete with the foreign product), we then apply targeted tariffs so that people can slowly shift to the homegrown product. Doing all this can takes decades of careful planning.

    Tariff is not an ON/OFF switch which Trump thinks