I’ve been reading up on the tariffs that were imposed during the Trump administration and I keep seeing mixed reviews about their effectiveness. On one hand, they seemed to protect certain domestic industries by making imported goods more expensive; on the other hand, there’s a lot of talk about higher prices for consumers and retaliatory measures from trading partners.

The thing is, these tariffs aren’t exactly popular among everyone. If we were to look back 1 year out, 2 years out, and even a few more years down the line, how will we actually know if this was a good move?

Surely there are some metrics or outcomes that can help us evaluate their success or failure. I guess it’s not as simple as checking stock market performance alone, although that’s probably part of it, right?

Is it primarily about looking at changes in trade balances with countries like China, or do we need to consider the broader economic impacts, such as job growth within certain industries? And how much weight should be given to the political ramifications, like strengthened relationships (or tensions) with trading partners?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on what metrics or indicators would help determine whether these tariffs were indeed a beneficial strategy. Thanks in advance for any insights!

  • yarr@feddit.nlOPEnglish
    0·
    24 hours ago

    If they worked, we would see manufacturers almost instantly beginning construction on US factories, opening new ones and reopening shuttered plants.

    I think the almost instantly is the problem there for me. If I was someone that could afford to build a factory, I know that it would take a couple of years to come up to speed. I also know that if the tariffs disappear, that my money is gone. It won’t work under “normal” conditions. So, I’ll want some assurance these will be in place for a while. Since no one will make that assurance, or at least someone who would would be lying, I wouldn’t feel confident enough to build anything.

    I assume anyone with enough money to build a factory would think about some variation of that above. I think for that reason, no serious numbers of factories will get built. And, if none get built… what are we doing?

    • bradorsomething@ttrpg.network
      0·
      23 hours ago

      I have two smaller businesses, and I’ve both laid off due to expected decrease in business and bought supplies ahead due to expected shortages.

      You’re good putting together that you wouldn’t build a factory right now because uncertainty doesn’t let you predict returns. Not only can you not predict the next president and their tariff policy, I wouldn’t say you can predict trump’s actions tomorrow. I heard an interview John Bolton did today, and he said something along the lines that “trump doesn’t think, he reacts.” Tariffs could be zero or 500% next month or next year or tomorrow. The safe move is to wait and see - and while everyone waits and sees, only small-scale production will start, definitely not enough to sustain demand.

      Honestly, if I had the money to build a factory right now, I’d park it and wait to buy one from a company that fails in all this. It would save so much money.