Should I say the word draft?
Just pump out a little propaganda. We can afford it.
“Would you like you learn more?”
Barring the US actually being attacked on our own soil, I think it’s highly unlikely we’ll ever see another draft. The last one was a miserable failure.
No.
The thing is that the US has a couple characteristics that really don’t favor conscription.
Conscription is useful if you might be invaded, need the ability to raise a lot of basic infantry on short notice. It’s costly, because you require a portion of everyone’s labor for a period of time, but it can be otherwise irreplaceable.
On defense, the US is a very major military power on a continent that has no other major military powers. It is very unlikely to be attacked by a nearby country, at least not the United States of 2024.
To invade the United States, other major powers need to cross the oceans. However, the US is by far the most-militarily-powerful country in the world in the air and at sea; staging for such an attack by land requires crossing oceans and any such attack heavily favors the defender.
The US might be attacked with, say, nuclear ballistic missiles. But that isn’t really the sort of thing that one can stop with more infantry.
What about offense?
Well, the US probably isn’t going to get into any manpower-heavy major land conflicts, and in the past, it has generally favored materiel-heavy fighting. You can’t just grab a random person off the street and put him into a fighter jet very effectively.
In the three conflicts you’re talking about:
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Ukraine. The US is very probably not going to get into land warfare here. If the US wants to forcibly tip the balance, it can do so from the air.
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Gaza. No point. Israel has things easily in hand. The US can provide support for political reasons, but it’s not necessary for Israel to easily come out on top.
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China. The US will not go fight a land war against China; if China and Taiwan fight, the fight will be in the air and at sea. The US isn’t going to try to take Beijing.
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I think 2 of them are conflicts without american ground troops. It’s more a business opportunity for the weapons industry.
Abraham Lincoln in his Lyceum address said:
“Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant to step the ocean and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest, with a Bonaparte for a commander, could not by force take a drink from the Ohio or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial of a thousand years. At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer. If it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us; it cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.”
We don’t have troops in any of the places you mentioned, and don’t need a draft even if we did. But we could unbalance and have unbalanced our own country by intervening in conflicts where it doesn’t make sense to get involved. (And sadly have chosen the wrong side in some cases)
The US had a really bad experience with conscription last time. Now that drones are a reliable thing, it seems highly unlikely.
After the cluster fuck with Vietnam, I feel like literally any president who isn’t Trump would not touch the draft with a 100ft pole unless there was active combat on American soil
Yep. Even in the worst parts of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, the Bush administration made damn sure that a draft never happened.
You should definitely say the word “draft”.
The First Amendment is worthless if we don’t discuss the possibility of mass injustice.
The constitution is already barely more than toilet paper for conservatives
A draft is highly unlikely for the same reason other US sectors aren’t desparate: they simply don’t need a lot of grunts.
Modern mechanized warfare doesn’t need nearly the supply of foot soldiers that conflicts passed did. We need engineers, technicians, skilled tradesmen, all of which can be recruited with a nice salary.
Russias invasion of Ukraine is using technology and tactics that were obsolete in the 70s, with predictable results. Were the US to formally enter the conflict, we probably wouldn’t see soldiers touch soil until it was already time to clean up the ashes.
Nah, they wont draft unless shit gets extreme.
America loves their military while its voluntary and they get to thank people who arent their children for their service. When your child is concscripted against their will and comes home in a box the patriotism runs out real fast.
They could try things like buying up any student debt and freezing it while your serving. The prospect of provided housing and medical is not nothing these days or just straight up loosening the entry requirements.
I’m no combat expert, but I’ve heard some people say numbers don’t win modern wars so a draft isn’t necessary.
With China in particular it would be poking the bear; recruitment is on the decline in both China and USA.
