No, as a thought experiment, I think if regime change meant continued US support they’d be safe from neighbouring countries while negotiating that change.
Given the “enemy” they are bombarding lacks the capacity to retaliate at scale no real harm would come to them if they had to just stop genociding and occupying.
They would have to concentrate their resources on defence in the normal sense of the word.
Israel isn’t afraid of Hamas if US drops support, they’re afraid of Iran and several other Arabic countries. Palestine is just testing/training grounds for their military in their own eyes.
There’s this narrative that Israel is completely dependent on US aid and would be powerless without it, but I don’t think that’s obviously true. What military is going to meaningfully threaten them? Jordan has no interest in another giant wave of Palestinian migrants (given that the last one led to a coup attempt), nor does it have a significant military. Lebanon hardly has a genuine government. Syria is a mess. Egypt does have some legitimate power, but also has no interest in a massive war right next to them.
The only regional power capable of meaningfully threatening Israel is Iran, and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Sunni coalition do not want massive expansion of Iranian influence.
Not to mention, Israel has already defeated all of its neighbors, simultaneously, twice. I’m fairly confident that the only thing that would actually happen if the US stopped sending aid is a bit of a dent in the Israeli economy.
My point is that I think the Israeli political establishment would rather give up Netanyahu than give up billions of dollars worth of funding and weapons from the US.
Yeah, I think you’re right. Netanyahu is still currently on trial for corruption, he’s struggled to form a governing coalition, and even though he wanted to turn 10/7 into a moment of national unity, most Israeli’s blame him for the attack. He really is not popular domestically, and losing the support of Israel’s largest international partner would probably be the final nail in his coffin. I think this narrative of the U.S., “overthrowing,” Netanyahu is his government’s attempt to spin mild U.S. criticism into foreign election interference.
They could just as easily close ranks with support for Bibi galvanizing over perceived foreign influence in their politics. Nationalism is a powerful narcotic and the US making that move could just pump it into their veins.
If the US sanctioned Israel, the very next day the Gaza massacre woull stop and Bibi would out, and within a week probably in jail, not only because Israel’s oldest ally turning against them like that would be the stronguest possible message that they fucked-up, but also but because losing support from the US would be seen as an existential threat for Israel.
The talkie-talkie from the US Administration that’s as far as the US goes at the moment (accompanied by the very oppsite of the words in actions such as military and diplomatic support) is rightly seen as hot air produced merelly for Biden’s political convenience.
Just a distraction.
I mean the easiest way of overthrowing Netanyahu would be for the US to stop giving Israel money while he’s in power. He’d be gone by lunchtime.
Israel would be gone by lunch time.
No, as a thought experiment, I think if regime change meant continued US support they’d be safe from neighbouring countries while negotiating that change.
Given the “enemy” they are bombarding lacks the capacity to retaliate at scale no real harm would come to them if they had to just stop genociding and occupying.
They would have to concentrate their resources on defence in the normal sense of the word.
Israel isn’t afraid of Hamas if US drops support, they’re afraid of Iran and several other Arabic countries. Palestine is just testing/training grounds for their military in their own eyes.
Exactly. This is why I think they’d be willing to trade in Netanyahu.
Why?
There’s this narrative that Israel is completely dependent on US aid and would be powerless without it, but I don’t think that’s obviously true. What military is going to meaningfully threaten them? Jordan has no interest in another giant wave of Palestinian migrants (given that the last one led to a coup attempt), nor does it have a significant military. Lebanon hardly has a genuine government. Syria is a mess. Egypt does have some legitimate power, but also has no interest in a massive war right next to them.
The only regional power capable of meaningfully threatening Israel is Iran, and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Sunni coalition do not want massive expansion of Iranian influence.
Not to mention, Israel has already defeated all of its neighbors, simultaneously, twice. I’m fairly confident that the only thing that would actually happen if the US stopped sending aid is a bit of a dent in the Israeli economy.
My point is that I think the Israeli political establishment would rather give up Netanyahu than give up billions of dollars worth of funding and weapons from the US.
Yeah, I think you’re right. Netanyahu is still currently on trial for corruption, he’s struggled to form a governing coalition, and even though he wanted to turn 10/7 into a moment of national unity, most Israeli’s blame him for the attack. He really is not popular domestically, and losing the support of Israel’s largest international partner would probably be the final nail in his coffin. I think this narrative of the U.S., “overthrowing,” Netanyahu is his government’s attempt to spin mild U.S. criticism into foreign election interference.
They could just as easily close ranks with support for Bibi galvanizing over perceived foreign influence in their politics. Nationalism is a powerful narcotic and the US making that move could just pump it into their veins.
If the US sanctioned Israel, the very next day the Gaza massacre woull stop and Bibi would out, and within a week probably in jail, not only because Israel’s oldest ally turning against them like that would be the stronguest possible message that they fucked-up, but also but because losing support from the US would be seen as an existential threat for Israel.
The talkie-talkie from the US Administration that’s as far as the US goes at the moment (accompanied by the very oppsite of the words in actions such as military and diplomatic support) is rightly seen as hot air produced merelly for Biden’s political convenience.