Guerre en Ukraine : de la prudence à l'affolement… Ce que cache le virage de Macron
www.marianne.net
Quelle mouche a piqué le président au moment d'envisager l'envoi de troupes en Ukraine ? Plusieurs rapports confidentiels défense expliquent « l’affolement » de l’Élysée, où les chefs de partis sont invités ce jeudi 7 mars à évoquer la question. Sur le front, les Russes sont en position de force. Fallait-il pour autant, face à Poutine, brandir une menace intenable ?

TLDR

  1. Western planners underestimated Russian strength and assumed their defense lines would collapse upon breach.
  2. Ukrainian brigade training was insufficient, too administrative, and short.
  3. Western equipment is considered less efficient than Soviet due to maintenance issues and degraded mode capabilities.
  4. The report emphasizes Russian superiority in defensive tactics with heavy machinery for fortification.
  5. The Russian army is recognized as the technical reference for defensive strategies.
  6. Western press reported Moscow’s lack of interest in soldiers’ lives, but confidential reports suggest otherwise.
  7. Russians practice “Maskirovka,” appearing weak to hide their true strength.
  8. A stampede occurred during the loss of Avdiivka on February 17.
  9. Macron presented other reports to political opponents, challenging Western press’s underestimation of Russian capabilities.
  10. Ukrainian general staff lacks a critical mass of ground forces capable of breaking through Russian defensive lines.
  11. The most serious error is seeking exclusively military solutions to end hostilities.
  12. A French officer concludes that Ukraine cannot win the war militarily due to insufficient forces.
  13. Ukrainian soldiers’ fighting spirit is affected by ongoing conflict.
  14. Zelensky needs 35,000 men per month but isn’t recruiting half of them while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers each month.
  15. The Ukrainian failure at Avdiivka demonstrates that Kiev is not capable of re-establishing the collapsing front with an “elite” brigade’s dispatch.
  • Tankiedesantski [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    0·
    8 months ago

    Western equipment is considered less efficient than Soviet due to maintenance issues and degraded mode capabilities.

    “How often do we have to teach you this lesson, old man?”

    Russians practice “Maskirovka,” appearing weak to hide their true strength.

    Fair enough. You could only know this if you studied an obscure conflict called “World War 2”. Very esoteric knowledge.

    The Ukrainian failure at Avdiivka demonstrates that Kiev is not capable of re-establishing the collapsing front with an “elite” brigade’s dispatch.

    Throwing an “elite” (read: more well equipped than usual) formation to stop an advance is what the Nazis resorted to doing after the war had decisively turned against them. Didn’t work for them then, doesn’t seem to work for Ukraine now. Almost as if it’s a bad strategy only employed by losers.

  • bazingabrain [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    0·
    8 months ago

    Im not surprised marianne came out with this, but im also confused because their editorial line has been for the most part firmly pro ukraine ever since 2022? Very on brand for this opportunistic magazine

  • Shdwdrgn@mander.xyzEnglish
    0·
    8 months ago

    1. There has always been a non-military solution… Russia can go the fuck home and stop trying to invade other countries.

    2. Putin doesn’t have “volunteers”, he has a pool of what he considers undesirable citizens that he can trick or force into serving his meat grinder. Not to mention a seen in other articles recently he’s now resorting to essentially kidnapping citizens from other countries to fight his war for him. Funny, I would think if he had that many volunteers he wouldn’t have to resort to these tactics.

    I can’t really comment on the rest as I can’t read the article and have no reference on which these claims were made.

    • Arelin@lemmy.zip
      0·
      8 months ago

      Russia can go the fuck home

      The US should probably have considered not backing the fascist coup in 2014 then. Crimeans and ethnic Russians and eastern Ukrainians in Donbas wouldn’t have been bombed by the coup gov and it wouldn’t have gotten to this point.

    • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
      0·
      8 months ago

      There has always been a non-military solution… Russia can go the fuck home and stop trying to invade other countries.

      Wouldn’t that just lead to the citizens of the Donbas Republics being forced to fight alone against Ukraine and its remaining far-right paramilitaries?

      • tiredturtle@lemmy.ml
        0·
        8 months ago

        Then again, Donbas backed by fascist Russia and Ukraine having neonazi groups fighting each other, anti-fascists can’t support either. Mathematically considering, Russia’s invasion succeeding would promote more fascism to spread.

        • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
          0·
          8 months ago

          Then again, Donbas backed by fascist Russia and Ukraine having neonazi groups fighting each other, anti-fascists can’t support either. Mathematically considering, Russia’s invasion succeeding would promote more fascism to spread. What would prevent them or others in the future?

          Which Donbas neonazi groups are you talking about? The only one I’m familiar with is Rusich group, which consisted of 30 or so guys. That’s less neonazis than you find in single US marine battalion. The other example I can think of is that one Senior Lieutenant who wore the R3ICH operator skull and a valknut while receiving an award. There’s been back and forth on that guy and if those patches were looted. The R3ICH skull in particular is heavily associated with the Ukrainian military’s neonazis and is sold by the same company that makes Zelensky’s famous green clothes, Zelensky himself has been photographed with his bodyguard prominently displaying the R3ICH skull. It was a bad look for the Lt. either way but he’s still just one guy.

            • tiredturtle@lemmy.ml
              0·
              8 months ago

              Yeah, Azov is a bad look for Ukraine, even though they fight against Russia’s fascist forces

              • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
                0·
                8 months ago

                “The Waffen-SS is a bad look for Germany, even though they fight against Russia’s judo-bolshevik forces”

                Did the fact that Zelensky and the entire Canadian Parliament give a standing ovation to a Waffen-SS member cause you any sort of ideological dissonance? Or do you agree with Zelensky that its “normal and cool” for people to support Nazi collaborators?

                • tiredturtle@lemmy.ml
                  0·
                  8 months ago

                  No, you skipped the whole thread. There’s nothing cool about nazis. They’re a plague to everyone. When invading countries and when infighting against the invaders.

      • Shdwdrgn@mander.xyzEnglish
        0·
        8 months ago

        Donbas is part of Ukraine. “Russia going home” doesn’t mean they just retreat to areas where they already removed a significant portion of the Ukrainian population and replaced them with Russian sympathizers. It means getting their asses out of every part of Ukraine that they’ve been infiltrating, including Crimea too.

        • kookaburra@lemmy.ml
          0·
          8 months ago

          Donbas is part of Ukraine.

          Donbass was part of sovereign pre-2014 Ukrainian state. The people of Donbass will not bow to the ethno-state insurrectionists who overthrew the constitutional goverment. In any case, it’s some kind of karma that American fans of post-Maidan Ukraine would have orange bigot imposed on them until the end of this year.

          It means getting their asses out of every part of Ukraine that they’ve been infiltrating, including Crimea too.

          Last census held by Ukraine in 2001 has shown that nearly 60% inhabitants of Crimea were Russians. How you can drive them out without ethnic cleansing? Well, it’s obvious that it’s impossible to be supportive towards current Ukrainian regime without being at least a bit nazi.

        • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
          0·
          8 months ago

          Donbas is part of Ukraine. “Russia going home” doesn’t mean they just retreat to areas where they already removed a significant portion of the Ukrainian population and replaced them with Russian sympathizers

          You know I’ve never heard about this. The line I usually hear is Russia has brainwashed the Ukrainians there into becoming “Russia-backed separatists”. How much of the population of Donbas has been forcibly removed and are there any reputable western media sources where I can read more about this?

      • Shdwdrgn@mander.xyzEnglish
        0·
        8 months ago

        Most likely, yes. I haven’t been following this as closely but Israel certainly hasn’t hidden the fact that they are willing to commit all-out genocide just to get some land.

        • ButtBidet [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
          0·
          8 months ago

          Good for you for at least caring about Gaza.

          I haven’t been following this as closely

          I think you mean that the Western media isn’t reporting atrocities on non-white people. This isn’t your fault, per se, just that that system is very broken.

  • Openmastering@lemmy.ml
    0·
    8 months ago

    Just giving a bit of context here:

    Marianne is a french far-right sovereignist newspaper. I’m not surprised it’s spreading this kind of informations as its goal is definitely to weaken Macron’s government. Plus a lot of its headlines are clickbaity bullshit serving a far-right agenda.

    I’m not saying it’s a direct propaganda newspaper, but their interests are inline with those of Russia. It’s easy to get an officer to say this or that so I wouldn’t trust anything written here as it’s just opinions from some french officers.

    • bazingabrain [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      0·
      8 months ago

      I wouldnt qualify them as far right, imo theyre more opportunist than anything, they use whatever crisis of the moment to shit stir and sell more copies. Its a bizarro mix of a lot of different influences, they have good takes sometimes, other times youre better off just tossing the thing in a fire to keep warm