https://pca.st/episode/6df1a506-9b38-4298-8de5-ec17e71d379b

Here is a great explanation of what you’re asking. I trust this channel for news over pretty much anything else.

If you believe all kinds of capitalist ideology and pseudo-science, then it might seem strange.

But in reality fascism is great for capital. Also the fed prints hella money to prop it all up.

Because it’s now completely disconnected from the reality of the actual economy. It has been for a very long time. It has to do with how much money is funneled into the wealthiest hands.

Crime. It was crime before, but it’s crime now too.

The people who were supposed to be in charge of preventing the crime didn’t do it before because they were part and party to it, they certainly won’t enforce the laws now.

Look at Tesla stock prices - even after a slight deflation it’s astronomically overvalued and divorced from reality.

We’re in a speculative bubble baby!

Because it’s basd on bullshit metrics that mean nothing?

Maybe we should abolish stock markets.

Unfortunately the president does not need to care about what his political party thinks about his action. There is the big problem. Now they have a wild tigger running around.

The stock market is delaminated from the real market, and has been for a while.

How this has happened is not simple but a short version is that as the stock market has evolved it became a key place to put assets with a level of growth expectation. As time goes on the demand for a place for investment without effort (starting your own business vs investing in a businesses stock) keeps getting larger and the alternatives keep getting less desirable (bonds, GICs, etc.) causing a sort of investment feedback loop. There is X amount of money that needs to be invested each year lets say, and if every thing is crashing (waves at the general state of things) it means nothing is since pensions, people and firms still need to have that investment somewhere.

As long as there is still some expectation of return and faith in the current stock market you will have investment and as stocks (and therefor the market) are measured by the demand (the buy vs the sell) we have the current situation. If you want to see what happens when a stock market looses people’s faith and therefor investment look at China’s stock market crash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%932016_Chinese_stock_market_turbulence

Because this is the Second Business Plot, and this time it worked.

That depression that’s coming is only for the working class. The rich will keep making money using us indentured workers as slaves to make more money.

When the Berlin Wall fell, the predictions made at the time were for several decades of low intensity conflict (‘war on terror’) followed by another major world war. This is the expected state of the world, not some surprise outcome from out of nowhere that the capitalists haven’t planned for.

Australia is still being shielded from Chinese expansionism by NATO’s anti-access and area-denial strategy emplaced along the islands off China’s coast.

If the war in Europe expands and heats up, it will be European cities that get destroyed and EU citizens who will have to choose to fight for their autonomy or preemptively surrender to subjugation by the Tsar. USA pulling back from supporting Ukraine forces the EU to pick a path and walk it. Either they build an army capable of self-defense, or they’ll be overrun. The fighting in Ukraine prevents Russia from building up forces, buying the EU time to arm themselves, if that’s what they decide they want to do. If they move fast, there’s a chance they can win the war before it really begins.

Expect to see nuclear proliferation. Modern wars have shown that non-nuclear armed states are a toothless prey species that only exist so long as their nuclear armed neighbors permit it. During the reconstruction era following WWII, USA’s relative advantage in infrastructure and technology allowed them to grant credible security guarantees. Now that the rest of the world has caught up, USA’s defense promises have lost credibility (for example, see Ukraine).

The ocean is full of submarines, and the coastlines bristle with long range, precision missiles. World trade is expected to be among the first casualties of the next world war. Countries that are not self-sufficient will be unable to replenish their losses. Economic protectionism is a matter of national security.

Dismantling USA’s Federal government serves the interests of organized crime, ie the capitalists that own Wall Street. They’re getting squeezed by de-globalization but also expect to be able to expand into new criminal enterprise enabled by deregulation and the dismantling of the Federal government’s investigative capabilities. Without having someplace better to invest capital, might as well let it ride despite the chaos. With a world war, and possibly a nuclear exchange, just over the horizon, there really isn’t any safe place to put one’s money, except perhaps housing and real estate in those parts of the world expected to survive. Canada. Siberia. Greenland.

If we do nothing to reduce atmospheric CO2, global heating will eventually cap out at 5 degrees C and won’t go higher due to diminishing returns. The far north will need to invest in agricultural infrastructure, but once that gets built out in the warmer world, there will be more arable land than there is today. Its going to be boom times for real estate developers.

Investors understand that he’s going to do everything he can to transfer wealth to the top. That makes it safe to invest more because more will be coming in. That’s my casual guestimate.

The stock market has no attachment to reality any more

The stock market will always be up and going up if people keep putting more money in it.

Stocks represent all assets that can be sold and traded publicly. Although US infrastructure is crumbling, all the shit is still there.

Times are hard but we still have obscene material wealth (for now, here is hoping climate change doesn’t reduce that too much). Ironically, stocks should have gone down in the pandemic cause of the productive capacity dropping but it didn’t cause a lot of cash was printed.

For stock prices to tumble down and crash, people need to take their money out of it. That’s only going to happen if there is another economy that people prefer to put their money in (like China).

So what is more likely to happen is we keep having stock prices go higher and higher, cause more and more money would be in circulation (so inflation). But our productive capacity could drop. So we could become much more poor, have little wealth all around, and go to the baker to buy 1 loaf of bread with $1000 price tag.

TLDR: when your economy represents basically “everything”, it won’t crash unless human civilization crashes.