I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930’s, how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump’s already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that’s us, we’re audi, this is insane, we can’t trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don’t know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol
I’m not surprised why big companies no matter what morals they claim(ed) to follow still do business like nothing happened. As long as they can strive for profits and shareholder value they will. Big business is the last place one should look for any sort of backbone.
I’m also surprised why there hasn’t been more of an impact on the stock market. I wouldn’t have expected an immediate drop of 50% or some catastrophic decrease like that. That’s because a lot of the incredibly smart economic policies from stable genius will take time to cut into bottom lines. First prices continue to go up for US consumers, spending will go down, unemployment numbers will go up, and then possibly a recession. Which he will blame on Greenland, I suppose.
Stock markets are legal gambling. As long as the gamblers still have hope they will play. Most will play without hope as well. And Trump 45 was good for them so hope is still very much alive.
At the same time, chainsaw wielding deregulation will help businesses in the US. It may not be great for consumers or the environment but tax breaks are great if you can get them. Melon Usk is not bulldozing any sort of oversight for his business interests or the IRS for no reason.
As for uprooting security alliances I think we will see a move away from US manufactured defense goods pretty soon, maybe starting next year. Europe will concentrate on its own industry more than ever. Even if they don’t find a common position to take in regards to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they will all look to increase spending locally rather than transatlantically, having hopefully learned that reliance on Washington is futile.
Defense contacts are harder to get rid of than a Tesla though, these things take even longer to show up on Wall Street. I mention Tesla though because numbers came out recently in France and Germany that showed a dramatic drop in new car registrations. I think this development on the micro level will eventually reach macro proportions as well. I am personally waiting for pitchforks being sharpened in Usk’s boardrooms because his doge antics and political statements cut into their bonuses.
Because the stock market is pure fantasy that doesn’t have anything to do with the economy?
Because the stock market isn’t a measure of how well a country is operating. On the contrary, deregulation allows companies to boost profit via harmful means. Rich people got it good under Trump/Republicans and therefore the stock market thrives until disaster strikes and it all comes crashing down.
The stock market is a speculative vehicle whereby predominantly rich people get richer. Generally pointing at everything should indicate a lot of rich people getting richer, so what’s the issue? It’s only if you take the valuation of the stock market as some kind of core health measurement of the economy that it stops making sense. Because it’s not that.
They have most of the wealth. They don’t need the working class. Just jeep purchasing beach others netbooks and number goes up. Realized it wasn’t tied to reality during covid.
Trump: “I’ll run the USA like a company!”
How business people run companies: Fire all the competent people and replace with cheaper new hires. Report huge short term profits due to reduced payroll. Stock goes up. CEO ditches company and sells off stock before all the new hires completely wreak the company and tank the stock price.
Why wouldn’t the stock market be up at this point?
Stock market is basically meme gambling these days no different from crypto. Its not a reliable indicator of anything.
I think economy, in the sense of money as a concept, is an illusion. We all just agree that money is worth something. When our belief in the American Dollar fails, so would follow any stocks tied up in businesses that rely upon it. Those trillions and tax cuts that Musk has? Worthless.
shrug
That is my hypothesis, anyways. My guess is that we are into a Weimer Germany sort of scenario. I have been converting my money into Euros, with the assumption that America as we knew it is going to die horribly within years. Hopefully, my efforts are pragmatic, not paranoid. 😕
I have been converting my money into Euros, with the assumption that America as we knew it is going to die horribly within years. Hopefully, my efforts are pragmatic, not paranoid. 😕
Hopefully, your efforts are paranoid, not pragmatic.
(Not blaming you for how you’re coping/preparing, just not personally ready to give up on our country yet) The past is useful because history rhymes, but the future isn’t written in stone
More than fair. It would be nice to rub the back of my neck and feel embarrassed for overreacting. Here’s hoping your timeline is what happens.
Trump is a businessman, and apparently a good one if you look at his past results, like it or not.
Hence, business making is what he does and encourages in the American populous, again, like it or not.
Of course a Trump presidency will stimulate the stock market. It is what it is.
The stock market is delaminated from the real market, and has been for a while.
How this has happened is not simple but a short version is that as the stock market has evolved it became a key place to put assets with a level of growth expectation. As time goes on the demand for a place for investment without effort (starting your own business vs investing in a businesses stock) keeps getting larger and the alternatives keep getting less desirable (bonds, GICs, etc.) causing a sort of investment feedback loop. There is X amount of money that needs to be invested each year lets say, and if every thing is crashing (waves at the general state of things) it means nothing is since pensions, people and firms still need to have that investment somewhere.
As long as there is still some expectation of return and faith in the current stock market you will have investment and as stocks (and therefor the market) are measured by the demand (the buy vs the sell) we have the current situation. If you want to see what happens when a stock market looses people’s faith and therefor investment look at China’s stock market crash https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%932016_Chinese_stock_market_turbulence
That depression that’s coming is only for the working class. The rich will keep making money using us indentured workers as slaves to make more money.
Because the stock market doesn’t reflect real life
Maybe we should abolish stock markets.
That’s the goal of actual leftism
Investors understand that he’s going to do everything he can to transfer wealth to the top. That makes it safe to invest more because more will be coming in. That’s my casual guestimate.
Don’t even ask the question
The answer is yes, it’s priced in.
Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That’s already been priced in.
You work at the drive thru for Mickey D’s and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don’t already know that?
The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born.
Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil’s expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc.
Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren’t thinking of.
You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth.
The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe).
So please, before you make a post on Lemmy asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don’t ask such a dumb fucking question again.
