People keep saying this and I personally don’t really believe it, I think there could be a couple riots, but not like a full on civil war. What does everyone think?
The friend of certainty is time. One day perhaps then we won’t even call ourselves Americans. I doubt the 1860s will happen again anytime soon. Maybe something closer in scale to Blair Mountain.
Look to history. We’ve had two. Look at the words explaining the necessity of independence in the declaration of independence. Those were not hollow words but detailed a long series of abuses. Then look to the causes of the Civil War. A perfidious institution anathematic to the very core ideal of the nation, that all men are created equal.
Our times doubtless have our problems but the do not meet nearly the standard set in the past.
To think it can never happen here is American Exceptionalism. We are just another country. Nothing special here.
No
Alternate question…
What the fuck is a ‘battleground’ state, and why does the media even have the nerve to use that term? I mean I know what it basically means, they should stick with ‘swing’ state, instead of putting the word ‘battle’ into nutjob’s heads just before an election.
I don’t care what people’s political opinions are, but we already have enough gun nuts out there, and at least a couple attempts on the former president’s life.
You can’t even feel safe sending your kids to school in numerous areas, and can’t even always feel safe in a Walmart these days.
Are you sure we’re not already in a civil war?
I guess if we’re going to keep using war and conflict terms you could say we’re in a cold civil war.
We might as well call schools “sporadic shooting galleries” the way we’ve been treating the issue… It’s absolutely absurd :(
Our culture phrases damn near everything in metaphors of war. The war on drugs. The battle of the bands. Bob lost his battle with cancer. It’s absolutely pervasive, to the point it’s almost as invisible as the air.
You do have a point, though in terms of common everyday language, that’s a bit disappointing.
Of course it could happen. Do I think it will happen in the next two months as we get through election season? Nah.
I also don’t think a civil war in modern days would look anything like it did in the 1860s. Aside from the obvious advance in weapons and tactics, there’s no convenient clear line between one half and the other like there was with North/South. It would look more like civil wars do in other countries in the 21st century.
Modern civil war happens when a domestic terrorist group starts to act agains the government.
For a full on civil war the army would habe to break apart in factions too, and I don’t thinl that’s probable in the us
I don’t see how you’d have enough parity between two sides, whichever side the military picks would just be the overt over dog and maaaaaaybe you could have some kind of armed mountain resistance or something, but it would be more a rebellion than a civil war.
Why do you think the military wouldn’t fracture as well?
Too professional, but I could be wrong
It’s made up of people. Not to mention the different cultures across branches and bases. Think of all the national guards, and the evangelical air force.
That’s what I’m getting at - it would. Maybe not officially, but the infighting would be intense.
Veteran here. Speculation - take it for what’s it’s worth (not shit). There’s a weird notion that the military is always just going to default to red, and while the total count definitely does lean red (cuz, y’know… most of us are fuckin dumbasses who vote against out own interests…) there IS a split… maybe… idk, 60-40? Point is there’s a lot more blue in the military than we’re typically painted as.
So, civil war. First off, not gonna happen cuz we don’t have the spine for it. We’ll just continue to bitch at eachother from the comfort of our couches; and while that bitching will probably get louder and we’ll probably see some increase in domestic terrorism, it will not get to the point of actual war. But if we did… the military isn’t going to just pick a side; it’ll turn into the world’s largest shitshow of infighting. Then once we’ve sufficiently hamstrung ourselves, we’re going to get our asses handed to us by the enemies across the globe we’ve been collecting like fucking pokemon via our shitty foreign policy.
Tldr, the sides of our civil war are basically two yipping lapdogs that will bark louder and louder at eachother until we eventually prompt our pissed off neighbor to come over with a shotgun. The actual war that happens will kill both dogs well before we get to the point of a civil war.
I was in a medical unit. Almost entirely democrats, except the motor pool.
Just based off how comfortable Americans are, no.
I think it would be very wise to just vote for the normal person so we don’t even have to entertain the possibility of an authoritarian government and a resulting civil war. Once we are no longer a democracy, or are a managed democracy like Russia, it will be extremely difficult to unring that bell.
Could? Ehhh… Not really, at least while the economy is profitable. Liberals will do anything to stay in a union with their conservative colleagues. If we see wall street deteriorate then there’d be a real possibility.
I think the drug addiction crisis that they have is somehow preventing/delaying this to happen. But the elements for a civil war are there: weapons access, ideological intolerance, economical imbalance, evee-differing state and federal law and policies, corruption in government and the probable rise of a political group that lost the presidency causing the Capitol Attack out of resentment, between others.
Democracy in the USA feels like holding with pins. I see the country as conservative to far-right with very few space for other political ideologies.
Of course it can. War can happen any time, anywhere.
Inshallah
We’re not going to survive global warming if there isn’t one.
So I talked to a PhD who’s work covered civil wars across the world, and asked about this. Turns out there are several signs you need to see which makes a civil war more likely. Most of which we haven’t even gotten close to, because many of them are economic related and right now the US is still the single largest economy in the world where peoples standard of living is still very comfortable.
I asked ChatGPT to describe this and these are the highlights, in order of historical priority?
- Political instability and weak governance are present.
- There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.
- The economy is declining with high inequality.
- Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.
- External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.
- There is significant resource scarcity and competition.
- Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.
- Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.
- Society experiences strong ideological polarization.
- Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.
- The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.
- Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.
Note that the US does have some of these, but not to the evident level that you saw in Rwanda, Sudan, Yugoslavia, Syria, Burundi, Eritrea, Somalia, Libya, Myanmar, Haiti, and others. In short, if you look at the indicators, although the US is indeed troubled, it’s not troubled enough for people to hot the streets with more than riotous intent.
Let’s go point by point:
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Political instability and weak governance are present.
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No
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There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.
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Yes
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The economy is declining with high inequality.
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Economy: not declining - Inequality: high
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Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.
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Might happen if Trump loses or steals the presidency
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External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.
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Yes, big time
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There is significant resource scarcity and competition.
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Not yet, but global warming might make this happen
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Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.
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Well, it’s the USA
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Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.
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Might happen under Trump
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Society experiences strong ideological polarization.
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Yes
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Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.
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No
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The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.
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No
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Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.
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No
How is there not political instability and weak governance?
Good fill-in on that. i think I’d add some context to each which is worth discussing.
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Political instability and weak governance are present.
- No, there are some arguably elements, but when you compare to the issues you see in the countries who’ve had them “No” is good a simple distilled answer.
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There are deep ethnic, religious, or sectarian tensions.
- Yes, with the caveat that we are seeing low level tensions as compared to the direct violent and organic engage issues you might see in Syria, Haiti, Yugoslavia, etc. There is racism with violence and tension, but not at the widespread near genocidal level which are the signs which is considered. I admit this is arguably, but worth discussing as it’s a framing issue about gun violence, police use of force, structural violence, etc.
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The economy is declining with high inequality.
- Economy: not declining - Inequality: high, this in particular is going to be a hard sign to trip, given how widespread the middle class is in the US vs other examples. It’s just a much much larger base that needs to get squeezed so much more before you’ll likely see French like protests about the wage disparity, corruption, or other inequality challenges. It’s very relevant, but just unlikely to get a significant population to say it’s not fair enough to act on it… When they can still go out to eat, watch movies, have disposable income, and more.
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Persistent social unrest and widespread protests occur.
- Might happen if Trump loses or steals the presidency, this I’m just going to avoid given the continuing discussion.
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External powers are interfering or supporting different factions.
- Yes, big time, substantiated from a foreign power stand point. I’d point out that this should also describe multinational companies as much as foreign powers.
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There is significant resource scarcity and competition.
- Not yet, but global warming might make this happen, agree. Starting to see some changes due to some globalization, pandemic, and your point of climate change.
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Militarization and proliferation of arms increase.
- Well, it’s the USA, agreed… But we are not seeing this based on strictly ethic lines in a way.
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Systematic human rights violations and repression take place.
- Might happen under Trump
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Society experiences strong ideological polarization.
- Yes, I’d caveat this with the reality that although it’s perceived as half the country that is polling well for Trump, it’s closer to a third or less. Not that the ideology divide isn’t pertinent, but just that there are about 80 million people who don’t vote in the US, so voter participation in presidential election is about 60%. So perception is that we have huge divide, but it’s driven by less and more extreme voices then the masses.
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Demographic pressures such as rapid population growth or urbanization exist.
- No, I would actually argue this might be yes. The housing crunch is driven by a rural to urban migration, which has exacerbated the housing shortage. This in addition to the US being an outlier that has kept it’s population growth rate higher than other developed countries has continued to increase the US population, which is only recently beginning to slow. This is not at the same level as other collapsed countries, but is what gives people the perception that the US is struggling.
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The rule of law and justice systems are breaking down.
- No, agreed although the judge choices and decisions of late leave much to be desired.
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Historical grievances and unresolved conflicts resurface.
- No, agreed with the caveat that racial tension are at play and perceptions focus this to include immigrants.
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I am actually quite alarmed by this. It seems like all it is going to take is for a couple of years of drought to dry up the waterways and crop yields.
And we have seen the start of this already, with the water level of the Mississippi dropping to the point of preventing boats to go through
Every person is three meals away from being radicalized. Not my quote, not sure who it’s attributed to, but I’ve seen it on the internet over the years.
I agree, shit will really hit the fan when people can’t find food/water anymore, or at least have it not be readily available. Personally, I think it’s coming sooner than people are expecting just because climate change will compound on itself year over year, and we’re doing damn near nothing to mitigate any damage (still pumping ground water up like it’s an instantly renewable resource to water golf courses in the dessert, for example).
But radical people tend to be desperate for change, and most people get desperate when they start to actually get hungry.
Nah… Americans may hate each other, but ultimately, unless there’s a major irreconciliable internal struggle between two major social movements on
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economic system
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foreign policy
and its resulting instability…
I don’t think there’s gonna be another one
I don’t think people who say it will happen really understand how inconvenient war is. And I use that wording to be laughable, because these are people who couldn’t wear a mask because they needed haircuts. They are quite literally the people who would starve to death if they were cut off from Walmart, who are fully dependent on oil to move their cars. They are so attached to American society they wouldn’t be able to maintain actual efforts for more than a couple of weeks.
Who i actually worry about are the few (I’ll call them) cells who could hold out for longer, who really do think it’s war. It wouldnt be full scale, but those unhinged lunatics who hoard weapons just are frothing at the mouth to hurt people.
From an ML perspective… what is to be done?
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No, not in a North vs South sense. If anything it’s just going to be in the form of terrorism like we saw during his presidency. Just more bold.
