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Seriously, Joe, do you not know the stakes? “Sure, America fell to fascism, but I tried my best.” For fucks sake, Trump has straight up said he was going to be a dictator, and the Supreme Court will back him all the way. It’s unbelievable that all that stands between us and the fall of the republic is a man in his 80s who isn’t fully cognizant of the situation.

  • t3rmit3@beehaw.org
    0·
    4 months ago

    Polling is incredibly unreliable. That is people that pick up the phone and talk to pollsters. Do you know anyone under 60 who does that? Additionally, a lot of those calls are on landlines. How many people do you know who have landlines? How many of those are under 60? The polls are heavily skewed towards boomers.

    All these incorrect assumptions of yours could have been answered simply by actually reading the poll report before making claims about it:

    On June 28, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,011 U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents.

    https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2024/6/dfp_post_first_presidential_debate.pdf

    Literally entirely online.

    Polling has long since shifted away from relying on landline cold-calls. And I agree that now is certainly sub-optimal for a change; that should have happened during the Primary (you know, where candidates present themselves to voters to find out who voters want), rather than the DNC pressuring other democrats out of running. But better late than never.

    In the end, you and I are probably never going to see eye-to-eye, because of one fundamental difference of beliefs; you believe Biden might win. I don’t.

    Since it seems clear that Biden isn’t going to step aside, I really hope you’re right and I’m wrong, but I’m not banking on it.

    • Scary le Poo@beehaw.org
      0·
      4 months ago

      A “web panel”? You are suggesting that polling done via “web panel” is reliable?

      So, these’s this bridge that I’ve been meaning to show you. It seems right up your alley, it’s cheap too!

      Edit: fuck me, is this a fucking twitter poll???

      Double edit: nope, a twitter poll would actually be more reliable. https://www.dataforprogress.org/our-methodology

      • t3rmit3@beehaw.org
        0·
        4 months ago

        Ah, a political strategist and a statistician as well, able to dismiss stances discussed by Democratic Congresspersons and polling methodologies at a glance (and always, I notice, without any supporting evidence). Truly, you are a modern Renaissance Man.

        For anyone else who comes along who is not a bad-faith actor, DfP is ranked in the top 10% of pollsters by FiveThirtyEight, and is number 24 out of their 270+ tracked pollsters.