Eh, probably not a few centuries. I could be, IDK, but I don’t think it makes sense to quantify like that.
We’re a few major breakthroughs away, and breakthroughs generally don’t happen all at once, they’re usually the product of tons of minor breakthroughs. If we put everyone a different their dog into R&D, we could dramatically increase the production of minor breakthroughs, and thereby reduce the time to AGI, but we aren’t doing that.
So yeah, maybe centuries, maybe decades, IDK. It’s hard to estimate the pace of research and what new obstacles we’ll find along the way that will need their own breakthroughs.
We are dozens of world-changing breakthroughs in the understanding of consciousness, sapience, sentience, and even more in computer and electrical engineering away from being able to even understand what the final product of an AGI development program would look like.
Yup, AGI is terrifying; luckily it’s a few centuries off. The parlor-trick text predictor we have now is just bad for the environment and the economy.
Be ironic if it’s our great filter, boil the oceans for a text predictor
Eh, probably not a few centuries. I could be, IDK, but I don’t think it makes sense to quantify like that.
We’re a few major breakthroughs away, and breakthroughs generally don’t happen all at once, they’re usually the product of tons of minor breakthroughs. If we put everyone a different their dog into R&D, we could dramatically increase the production of minor breakthroughs, and thereby reduce the time to AGI, but we aren’t doing that.
So yeah, maybe centuries, maybe decades, IDK. It’s hard to estimate the pace of research and what new obstacles we’ll find along the way that will need their own breakthroughs.
We are dozens of world-changing breakthroughs in the understanding of consciousness, sapience, sentience, and even more in computer and electrical engineering away from being able to even understand what the final product of an AGI development program would look like.
We are not anywhere near close to AGI.